Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 13 Preview

TODAY was meant to be a day for the big bunch sprint and so it proved with Philippe Gilbert denying my pick, Edvald Boassen-Hagen.

Tomorrow however shouldn't see many of the quick men at the finish.

Starting at the town of Valls the riders will travel 169km in total to Castelldefels, just south of Barcelona.

The parcours will actually see the peloton roll through the finishing town after 108.7km. But it is the remaining 60km which will seal the fate of the sprinters.

There are two climbs en route, the first is the Coll de la Torreta, a 3rd category climb which starts just 13km into the stage.

At 10km long and with an average gradient of 5.8% it will be bit of a wake up call to the peloton but won't be hard enough, and comes way too early in the stage, to decide the destiny of the stage win.

It could well decide the make-up of the days break however.

The second climb will play a huge part in the outcome of the day.

The wonderfully named Alto del Rat Penat appears in front of the field with 54km to go. It is a mere 4.5km long and because of this it is only classed as a first category climb.

It's gradient however will strike fear into some. It has an average of 10.6% and hits ramps of between 14% and 16% in the middle two kilometres.

That will be more than enough to send the sprinters scurrying into the safety of the 'bus' and will see a very reduced field cross it's summit.

Expect attacks here. The likes of David Arroyo of Caja Rural and any of the Euskatel riders although Igor Anton seems the one with the most attacking intent so far in this race.

The big favourites will know there is a long run to the finish and with the race heading into the Pyrenees on Saturday they may not want to expend too much energy.

If one of them starts to suffer though, that could change.

The road then heads steadily downwards as we head back to the coast and Castellfedels. It may allow some to get back on and anyone with a half decent sprint may find themselves favourite for the win.

Into this bracket would be the likes of Gianni Meersman, Dominik Nerz and Reinhardt Janse van Renesburg.

The final few kilometres are along the sea front and so wind may be a factor, although current forecasts suggest only a slight breeze.

With 3km to go the road swings inland, past the 1992 Olympic Rowing strip and towards the final 300m.

I mention the final 300m for two reasons. One there is another roundabout to cross and once you have the road kicks up, not massively but enough to dull the legs.

It's going to be a fascinating stage and is really difficult to pick a winner.

I think there might be bid by someone like Alejandro Valverde. With bonus seconds on the line he may see this as an opportunity to win back some time on Vincenzo Nibali and the likes. Same applies for Nico Roche.

Don't be surprised to see the likes of Tony Martin or Fabian Cancellara contesting the finish. Martin had a little go today and they may see this stage as a chance to test their legs one more time prior to the world championships. Both will be dropped on the climb but both will be more than able to get back on.

Even prior to his win today my pick for the day would have been, and still is, the current world champion  Gilbert. He hasn't had the best of years in the rainbow bands but there were signs he was improving before he unleashed that wonderful sprint today.

He was pipped to the line on stage 7 and this finish will suit him as today's did. If he can get over the climb in a fairly good position and then get himself into a good group, he could easily make it back on and spring a double celebration.

In fact don't be surprised if his major challenger may be the man he defeated today, EBH. It's definitely coming for Eddie and if he can use today's disappointment as motivation, then he will be close again.

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 11 Preview

FIRTSLY, an apology. Totally mixed up when the rest day was and missed Stage 10's preview up a savagely steep final climb.

If it's any consolation I'd have probably gone for a Domenico Pozzovivo type and certainly wouldn't have picked eventual winner and new leader of the Tour Chris Horner.

Horner's ride has stretched the time gaps at the top. Prior to stage 10 the top ten was separated by 1.25. They are now covered by 3.28.

Two former Vincenzo Nibali is second at 43 seconds with Nico Roche third at 53 seconds.

It means that stage 11 will need to be pivotal for some, as it seems every stage so far has been.

Wednesday's stage is an Individual Time Trial, totalling 38.8km in length, and including the 3rd category Alto del Moncayo.

It should alter the overall standings once more as those riders who aren't pure climbers try to steal back some more time.

Nibali and Alejandro Valverde should be able to produce good rides as should ninth place Rafal Majka. All will be towards the top of the day's rankings.

Joaquin Rodriguez and Roche will see this as a chance to cement their

Roche has been particularly impressive during this Vuelta and is perhaps showing the grand tour form that a lot of people have expected from him. His time trialing ability has often been his Achilles heel so the climb should help him out.

Rodriguez though should be the big favourite from those in the top five and at 1.40 behind Horner he needs to put in a good ride.

Horner has been outstanding so far in this race and while he can produce a decent TT, he will need to tap into that top form if he is to limit his losses. I don't expect him to lose the leaders jersey however.

Outside of the top GC boys those looking for the stage win should be the likes of Janez Brajkovic, Roman Kreuziger and Sammy Sanchez.

Other outsiders would include the BMC pair of Marco Pinotti and Dominik Nerz and Lieuwe Westra of Vaconsoleil. All three have had indifferent form recently but are more than capable of doing something here.

It would also be remiss to not mention Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin when taking about an individual time trial.

World Champion Martin put in that sensational effort on stage five as a test for the upcoming defence of his title. On that form alone he looks in tip-top condition. Spartacus is also aiming for a world title although he has his eyes on the road race rather than the test against the clock. This would be a perfect test for him to judge his form.

It has been a fantastic tour for the fans to watch so far and I can't see the twists and turns stopping here.

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 11 Preview

WHEN Sir Bradley Wiggins won last year's tour he owed a lot to Team Sky's dominance in the mountains.

However it was his performances in the Individual Time Trials that were arguably the main reason for his success. Wiggins took a total of 1.51 out of Chris Froome in last years two stages, over half of his final advantage. 

Stage 11 sees the first of this year's tests against the clock and Froome will be hoping to emulate his team mate by putting major time gaps into his rivals. 

The route is straight out of the minds of the French Tourist Board. Travelling 33km it heads from Avranches in Normandy to the second most visited tourist attraction in France, Mont-Saint-Michel. 

It is an almost flat route and the biggest natural threat to the riders could be cross or headwinds. 

Froome will go into it defending a 1.25 lead over Movistar's Alejandro Valverde but he will be expecting to stretch that advantage somewhat. Valverde is not the best time-triallist in the world and this course will not suit him. 

Of the other GC contenders it will be interesting to see how Alberto Contador goes. He has won a  Tour time-trial before in 2009 the past but admitted that his legs weren't the best over the weekend. He will have had two days to recover though so won't be too far off the pace but I do expect him to lose more time to Froome. That said he should still move up the standings. 

Bauke Mollema is an interesting one. Currently third in the overall standings he isn't bad against the clock. In the recent Tour de Suisse he finished second overall after a great ride in the final ITT. He could well move ahead of Valverde after this stage. 

The man who beat him in that time trial and to the Suisse title was Rui Costa. The Portuguese man is currently 10th, 2.45 down on Froome and 1.20 on Valverde. It is not inconceivable he could catch Valverde in the overall standings. 

Roman Kreuziger has looked one of the strongest men at this race and could have been higher in the GC had he not followed team orders and helped Contador through the mountains. A former U19 World Champion at this event, he will be able to post a decent time, which could move him into a podium position. 

Also don't count out the BMC duo of Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen either. Both lost time in the Pyrenees but both, if they have recovered enough, can set good times. 

Of course the time-trial is not just about the overall positions. Their will be a battle for the stage win and the white jersey for best young rider. 

It is currently on the shoulders of Nairo Quintana with the young Colombian holding a 1.23 lead over Michael Kwiatkowski. Behind these stand Romain Bardet at 5.07 and Andrew Talansky at 7.33. Thibault Pinot is next but he is over 29 minutes down. 

Quintana can time-trial as can Kwiatkowski, although the young Pole just about has the advantage. It will mean he should close the gap and could herald a very interesting contest moving into the Alps. Both could feature in the top 10 here, definitely the top 20. Talansky is a good time trialler but has not looked on form so far this tour. He will need some effort to get close to the jersey. 

For the stage win you would be hard pushed to look beyond Tony Martin. The Omega Pharma Quickstep man is the current World Champion at this discipline and the course will suit him. He suffered a big crash on stage one but has been quietly nursing his wounds for a week now and I still see him as the big favourite.
 
Outsiders for a Top 10 finish on the stage will be Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits and Maxine Monfort. 

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Time Trials 

Individual Time Trials, or the Race of Truth as it is sometimes known, is where the big technological advances in cycling have been most keenly noticed. 

Specialist machines and solid disk wheels were already in use when American Greg Lemond arrived at the Tour in 1989. 

Wearing an aero helmet and with triathlon bars attached to his machine he managed to overturn a 50 second deficit to Laurent Fignon in the final stage, winning by just 8 seconds, the smallest winning margin in history. 

Just five years later Chris Boardman arrived with his Lotus Carbon Fibre machine that had steered him to Olympic glory in Barcelona. 

From then on advances have been made in every aspect, from the machine itself to the specialised skinsuits of the athletes. Sky for example have spent hours in the wind tunnel perfecting the perfect suit, looking at everything from the material to where the stitching should go.
 
Sky have even used the wind tunnel to help modify and improve Froome's position on the bike, anything to eke out a few more seconds.

But despite all these changes it still boils down to one thing. You against the clock. Speeds reached are incredibly fast, the average speeds for both of Wiggins victories in last years Tour was 48.4 kph and 50.0 kph. 

Speeds will be high again, especially if the wind is behind the riders as forecast. Riders adopt the most aerodynamic position possible and will rarely be seen out of the saddle. The smoother the pedal stroke the quicker they go. Or so the theory has it!

Expect many changes in the overall standings today and even more advances in the next few years.

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 4 Preview

THE opening three stages have all been concerned with one thing, stage victories.

However Stage Four will change all that with the focus switching to the general classification (GC).

The Team Time Trial (TTT) sees each team set off at three minute intervals in a battle against the clock. At the time of writing all teams bar Astana still have their full compliment of nine riders, which is just as well.

The finishing time is taken on the fifth member of the team who crosses the line. This means individual specialists can't just ride off into the sunset and must work together to ensure that at least five men make it to the finish together.

This year's test takes place around the streets of Nice. At 25km it is shorter than previous editions but will be fast. Speeds up to 55kph (that's 34mph) are expected and the result will certainly alter the look of GC and will almost certainly result in a change of leader.

Due to the lack of a prologue this year and the fact the previous stages have all resulted in big bunch finishes, there are still 71 riders within one second of our race leader Jan Bakelants.

Radioshack have a strong team, including Swiss master Fabian Cancellara, but it is unlikely that they will come out on top here. Instead the honour of stage win and new race leader should be fought out between three teams.

Team Sky began the Tour as favourites for this stage, even without Sir Bradley in their ranks. But the injury picked up by Geraint Thomas does throw a spanner in the works somewhat. G crashed on day one and although initial x-rays couldn't find a break, a CT scan has since revealed a small fracture to the pelvis. He has been earmarked as a major aid to Chris Froome's ambitions later in the race never mind for his ability against the clock.

However Sky still have Froome himself, Richie Porte, Ian Stannard, and Edvald Boasson Hagen, all of whom are accomplished time trialers in their own right. The team itself is incredibly well drilled as you would expect. It benefits from the same coaching set-up that has seen Great Britain dominate the Team Pursuit in recent years.

If they do come out on top here the yellow jersey will go onto the shoulders of Boasson Hagen. And while it would be a big ask for the team to control the race all the way to Paris from here they are certainly capable of doing so. Whether they want to is another matter. They may be content to hand the jersey over to someone else, as long as that person is not a threat to Froome overall.

Omega Pharma Quickstep are possibly their biggest challengers. In Tony Martin they have the world champion at the individual discipline although his crash on stage one has left him a very battered and bruised man. Suffering from concussion, a lung contusion, soft tissue damage on his knee, hip and back and a 5cm deep cut on his elbow, a lot will depend on how he is feeling. It is almost certain that he will not be at 100% although he was at the sharp end of things into Calvi.

They do have other strong men though apart from Martin. They prove this time and time again in powering Mark Cavendish to the line. Sylvain Chavanel's name keeps popping up in these previews for a reason. He is a strong rider and as he has shown over the course of the last couple of days he certainly has the form at the minute.

If OPQS win they would have Michael Kwiatkowski in the Malliot Jaune. The young Pole is spoken as a future winner of a Grand Tour and will relish any time in yellow although he may have designs on the white jersey for best young rider.

The expectation to do all of the work to defend the jersey will not be something that will phase them either. They are pretty much expected to do the majority of work on any flat stage in order to supply Mark Cavendish with more stage win opportunities and with the upcoming stages mostly sprint days they would have been on the front anyway.

Movistar are the third potential winners of the stage. They will hope that Alejandro Valverde can keep up with the likes of Jonathan Castroviejo and Rui Costa.

Elsewhere the likes of Garmin, Orica GreenEdge & BMC have a chance of sneaking onto the top step. Victory for any of these three would see David Millar, Simon Gerrans or Cadel Evans step into the yellow jersey.

The big loser here could Alberto Contador. His Saxo Tinkoff squad aren't bad against the clock but they will finish behind the teams of his rivals. And while time losses here will only be seconds they will still be enough to force him into attacking a bit more than he wanted in the mountains.

Either way the Tour won't be won or lost here. But it will put a marker down for what could happen over the next few weeks.

And the way the last three days have gone, that could be anything!