Tour de France 2014 route claimed as Chris Froome friendly

By Neil Metcalfe

When Sir Bradley Wiggins won the Tour de France it was considered a national triumph.

No Brit had ever won the Grand Boucle before but that year we managed to occupy not only the top step of the podium but also the second one as well.

Last year Chris Froome made the leap into the final yellow jersey to make it two wins from two.

Could he do it again to make a remarkable third successive British triumph?

Next year's route was announced in Paris on Wednesday and it immediately led to calls that 'yes he can'. 

With 25 mountains in total, five summit finishes and only one Time Trial it does appear that Froome, fitness and form aside, stands a very good chance.

But with only 54km of time trialing, so do a lot of the other climbers.

If it is to be one of the mountain goats who takes the spoils, there will have to overcome one or two hurdles along the way.

For the first time in seven years the Tour will start here in Britain, and Yorkshire to be precise.

The Director of the Tour, Christian Prudhomme, has said that Yorkshire won the organisers over with it's beauty and the quality of the terrain for cyclists.

With the severity of some of the climbs however that might not be a sentiment shared!

Stage Five will commemorate 100 years since the start of World War with the stage beginning in the Flemish town of Ypres, scene of some of the heaviest fighting in the Great War.

It will then head back into France finishing at Arenberg Porte du Hainaut, but not before taking in 15.4km of cobblestones or pave.

The last time the cobblestones were included in Le Tour was back in 2010 and it caused chaos.

Most of the pre race favourites lost a lot of time and one, Frank Schleck, crashed out.

The lead riders will need to be vigilant and ensure they can get through this safely.

The Vosges mountains will be pivotal, with their short but incredibly steep climbs, and the first summit finish will be one Froome knows well.

La Planche des Belles Filles (literally the plank of the beautiful girls) was the scene of Froome's first ever stage win back in 2012.

It was also the stage where Wiggins and Team Sky put their dominance on the race, destroying most of their rivals and taking over the yellow jersey, a grip they would keep all the way to Paris.

The time trial comes the day before the procession onto the Champs-Elysees.

It will be the final battleground of this years race and for some of the non-specialists they will need upwards of two minutes, and probably closer to three, over the likes of Froome if they are to beat the Sky man in the general classification.

It is an exciting looking route.

The short, sharp climbs will test riders to the limits. Even the climbers may find they have bad days on more than one occasion.

There isn't a lot of the so-called transition stages and even the designated sprint days will not be as easy as the likes of Mark Cavendish would hope for.

So what exactly can we expect?

The Route

Stage 1: Saturday 5th July : Leeds to Harrogate - 191km

Starting on the Headrow outside of Leeds Town Hall, the riders will set out across some of the most picturesque countryside in England. Two categorised climbs including the famous Buttertubs Pass in the Yorkshire Dales will test the field but it should be a fair sized peloton arriving into Harrogate. Expect Cavendish to be busting a gut to ensure he takes the first yellow of this years race.

Sunday 6th July : Stage 2 : York - Sheffield - 198km

Only one categorised climb on the parcours does not tell the whole story. Once over the iconic Holme Moss the riders will face a very lumpy and in parts ridiculously steep run in to the finish in Sheffield. Likened to Liege-Bastogne-Liege with, the soon to be infamous, Jenkin Road taking the place of the Muur de Huy. With it's ramps of near 30% it is guaranteed to produce a classic style winner so look to the likes of Alejandro Valverde, Joaquin Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno or even Ireland's own Daniel Martin. 

Monday 7th July : Stage 3 : Cambridge - London - 159km

The Champs-Elysees is without doubt the most famous finishing straight in all of cycling. But The Mall is slowly developing a reputation of it's own and entering into folklore. Nothing but a sprint finish is expected here and after missing out in the Olympic Road Race, this will be high on Cav's wishlist.

Tuesday 8th July : Stage 4 : Le Touquet-Paris-Plage - Lille - 164km

Back on French soil and back to the scene of a record breaking ride by a Brit. Chris Boardman set a record average speed of 55.152kph in taking the yellow jersey in the 1994 Tour. Speeds may get close to this in the final gallop to the line as a bunch sprint looms. 

Wednesday 9th July : Stage 5 : Ypres - Arenberg Porte du Hainaut - 156km

With over 15km of 'pave' and most of it loaded into the final third of the stage it will be another classics rider who should take the honours here. Fabian Cancellara, Thor Hushovd and maybe our own Geraint Thomas will be names expected towards the front. For the favourites, today will truly be 'hell of the north' as they fight to limit their time losses, and make it through unscathed.

Thursday 10th July : Stage 6 : Arras - Reims - 194km

Another transitional stage should see a bunch sprint. Nerves will be frayed though and the fight to stay in the first few places will be intense. Crashes could well be the danger to anyone with overall ambitions.

Friday 11th July : Stage 7 : Epernay - Nancy - 233km

This will be the third time in five years that the Tour has left Epernay. The previous two occasions the stage finished with bunch sprints as first Cavendish (2010) and then Peter Sagan (2012) took the honours. Expect another this time around after the second longest stage of the Tour.

Saturday 12th July : Stage 8 : Tomblaine - Gerardmer La Mauselaine - 161km

The first summit finish comes at the end of what starts out as a straight forward day. However the final 20km will produce a real sting in the tail with three short but very steep climbs. The final ascent up La Mauselaine is only 1.8km long but it averages at 10.6%. Rodriguez will be one to watch but I would look towards a Colombian such as Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Uran or Sergio Henao.

Sunday 13th July : Stage 9 : Gerardmer - Mulhouse - 166km

No categorised climbs announced yet but that doesn't mean the day will be flat. The route will be lumpy but the final 40km is downhill which should mean a reduced peloton contesting the finish. It sounds like a day for the likes of Peter Sagan or Gianni Meersman.

Monday 14th July : Stage 10 : Mulhouse - La Planche des Belle Filles - 161km

Sky dominated here two years ago and will want a repeat of that. However it may not be possible this time out. Six categorised climbs litter the route which will change the gaps in the general classification from seconds to minutes. Expect Froome to attempt a repeat but as it is Bastille Day look for a possible French victor. Thibault Pinot, Christophe Riblon and the darling of the French fans, Thomas Voeckler are names to look out for.

Tuesday 15th July : Rest Day : Besancon

Wednesday 16th July : Stage 11 : Besancon - Oyannax - 186km

Oyonnax appears on the Tour for the first time but it did host a finish of last years Criterium Dauphine. Elia Viviani was the winner ahead of Meersman that day. Sagan will be the man to beat this time around.

Thursday 17th July : Stage 12 : Bourg-en-Bresse - Saint-Etienne - 183km

Breakaways succeed less and less but this might be one day it does. With the Alps on the horizon the favourites may want to keep their powder dry. If it does become a day for the opportunists then names such as Johnny Hoogerland, Sylvain Chavanel and Jan Bakelents.

Friday 18th July : Stage 13 : Saint-Etienne - Chamrousse - 200km

The final climb up to Chamrousse is a long, 18.2km drag but does settle down to a steady gradient after the first 7km. It will need a big attack early on for someone to get a gap but the likelihood is the big names will arrive together. Saxo Tinkoff with their multitude of options and Movistar likewise may send someone up the road for the win.

Saturday 19th July : Stage 14 : Grenoble - Risoul - 177km

Another long steady finishing climb which should see the teams of the favourites keep the pace high in an attempt to break the resistance of the other main players. Ahead of them though a breakaway may be given enough space and could take the result here.

Sunday 20th July : Stage 15 : Tallard - Nimes - 222km

Definite transition stage and I can't see the sprinters passing up a chance like this, especially with a rest day to follow. The usual suspects should contest the win.

Monday 21st July : Rest Day : Carcassonne

Tuesday 22nd July : Stage 16 : Carcassonne - Bagneres-de-Luchon - 237km

The Port du Bales takes the riders to 1,755m in altitude. From the top it is 22km to the finish and it is all downhill. Thomas Voeckler has won the last two stages that have finished here (in 2010 and 2012) and you wouldn't put it past him attempting to make it three. Vincenzo Nibali and Valverde are both sensational descenders and both may see this as an opportunity to gain some time over their rivals.

Wednesday 23rd July : Stage 17 : Saint-Gaudens - Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d'Adet - 125km

A really short, but more than likely, explosive stage. Four categorised climbs including the final ascent to the Pla d'Adet will mean there will be plenty of people with an eye of this stage. Final positions won't be decided today but they could well be rubber-stamped. Definitely not one to miss!

Thursday 24th July : Stage 18 :Pau - Hautacam - 145km

The last mountain stage of the Tour sees the bunch head over the Col du Tourmalet again after last year's omission. The final climb up Hautacam gets steep in the last 5km and will be the scene of attacks. The climbers will need to distance Froome, Nibali and Valverde.

Friday 25th July : Stage 19 : Maubourguet Pays du Val d'Adour - Bergerac - 208km

Last sprint stage before Paris. And with the favourites waiting until the ITT tomorrow this one should go to form.

Saturday 26th July : Stage 20 : Bergerac - Perigueux (ITT) - 54km

It will be the last chance saloon and for some of the climbers it may be too late. Those climbers who can time trial well, the likes of Froome, Nibali and Valverde will all have a chance to claim the malliot jaune for the final time. For the stage win expect the usual suspects, Tony Martin, Cancellara and Wiggins with Taylor Phinney, Andrew Talansky and Tejay Van Garderen as outsiders.

Sunday 27th July : Stage 21: Evry - Paris Champs Elysees - 136km

It's iconic, it will be fast and furious and it will crown another winner of the world's biggest bike race. But before that final presentation it is eight laps of the most famous boulevard in the world. Cavendish ruled supreme here until last year. Marcel Kittel will be out to prove that last year wasn't just a flash in the pan.

Obviously this is all dependent on form, fitness, selection and huge slices of luck.

It will be another fascinating race.





 

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 20 Preview

THERE are some mountains in the cycling word who's merest name conjures up romantic images, wonderful scenery, amazing crowds and epic battles.

In France you have Alpe d'Huez where you think of Dutch Corner and of 1986 with Lemond and Hinault.

Mont Ventoux brings lunar landscapes to mind, as well as Tom Simpson and searing pain.

In Italy there is the Stelvio and the Zoncolan.

Spain has it's own mountain worthy of mention along side these greats.

The Alto de L'Angliru.

But there is romanticised talk when this is brought up. This is the type of mountain that is spoken of in hushed tones, in dark, dimly lit corners, well away from the public glare.

Mention it to any pro-cyclist and you'll see his face lose colour, beads of sweet form on his forehead and the religious types may even cross themselves.

For l'Angliru is a awful climb. Great if you're watching from the comfort of your armchair but an absolutely beast for anyone who dares conquer it's slopes.

The basic numbers just give a glimpse to it's severity. 12.2km long it has an average gradient of 10.2% (that's an average gradient of 10.2%) and it's maximum is a mind-blowing 23.5%.

Compare that to Alpe d'Huez. The Alpe is basically the same length but it's average gradient is 8.4% and it's maximum is only 11.5%.

But we still haven't really scratched the surface and as much as I'd like to, I don't think my words will ever do it justice.

So here's the profile of the climb:

Let that sink it. It's a daunting prospect.

 

But that's just the final climb. The stage is 142.2km long starting from Aviles and has three categorised climbs to get over before the final showdown, all of which are difficult climbs.

 

The Alto de la Cabrunana is a third cat, climbing for 5.2km at a gradient of 6.6%. It is followed by the second category Alto de Tenebredo which climbs for 3.4km but has an average of 10.5%, higher than the l'Angliru.

 

The final ascent before the finish is the Alto del Cordal. This is first category simply because it only goes on for 5.2km. It's average gradient however is 9.6%.

 

On their own they would have made for a monumental stage. And all three have just as savage descents as ascents.

 

Chris Horner will go into this stage as favourite, and now is 3 seconds up on Vincenzo Nibali in the general classification.

 

Horner has looked by far the better climber throughout this tour and the steepness of the slopes should see him edge clear of Nibali.

 

Nibali therefore may not be able to wait until the final climb. Where he can really make a difference however is coming off the Cordal.

 

The Italian is one of the best in the peloton at going downhill fast. If he can get an edge over the top of the Cordal and hit Horner hard on the descent then he could arrive at l'Angliru close to a minute ahead of his rival.

 

It would put RadioShack under a lot of pressure and as Horner has only really had Robert Kiselovski as backup in recent stages, it may mean the American has to do a lot of the chasing himself.

 

Alejandro Valverde and Joaquin Rodriguez are third and fourth, at 1.06 and 1.57 respectively. Both will need to put some serious pressure on to take the overall win and it will probably be too much of a gap to pull back.

 

But they will both be fighting for a podium and as both can descend and climb, they too may be looking at the descent of the Cordal.

 

I really can't see the stage win going to anybody but these guys. And that's probably only right. The l'Angliru deserves the main men to be battling to it's summit.

 

The last two winners on here went on to take the overall title. If Nibali and co don't steal the initiative early, Horner could well complete the hat-trick.

 

It is fitting that the final climb of this epic Vuelta a Espana is itself an epic monument in world cycling. And if everything pans out as expected it could well see a man 39 days shy of his 42nd birthday taking the final Grand Tour title of 2013.

 

You've got to love this sport!

 

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 19 Preview

THREE stages to go and it's all about the GC now.

Today's stage up to Pena Cabarga made a serious impact into the overall standings. Chris Horner is now just 3 seconds down on Vincenzo Nibali with Alejandro Valverde and Joaquin Rodriguez also managing to sneak a few seconds back on the Italian.

Tomorrow the route travels 181km along Spain's Northern coast from San Vincente Barquera to the Alto Naranco, just outside of Oviedo.

For most of the day the profile is fairly flat but it does pick up towards the back end and the days three categorised climbs all appear inside the last 40km.

The first two are both third category. First up is the Alto de San Emiliano, which climbs 6.3km at an average gradient of 4.6. This has it's summit with 32.7km to go.

Second up is the Alto de la Manzaneda. This is just 3.6km long but has a higher average gradient of 6.2%. And it's summit comes just 12.4km from the finish.

The final climb of the day is the second category Alto de Naranco, our finishing climb. It is 5.7km long with an average gradient of 4.2%.

In itself it shouldn't pose too much trouble to the peloton. However if the pace is high (which it undoubtedly will be) it will feel a lot harder and could cause some problems.

The stage could go one of two ways. It could be like I predicted today would happen. The GC boys may want the bonus seconds before the drama that will be Saturday.

However the more likely scenario is a break disappears up the road and gains enough time to fight it out for the stage win while the big names ride their own race.

For the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez to gain significant time they may have to go long. But that is very unlikely considering what awaits on Saturday.

So it looks like the status quo will be maintained and the destiny of the race will be decided on the dreaded slopes of the Angliru. Or will it?

Nibali may feel he cannot wait until Saturday. Horner is clearly the strongest climber and the much more likely to have success on the final climb. So will the leader attack?

It's going to be another stage that probably leaves more questions than answers. But in keeping with this wonderful race there is bound to be some serious action along the way.

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 18 Preview

STAGE 18 is the first of three major climbing days, which will decide the winner of the Tour of Spain.

Time is running out for people to attack current race leader Vincenzo Nibali although Monday will have given them all a lot more confidence.

The race is now arguably between four men. Nibali, Chris Horner, Alejandro Valverde and Joaquin Rodriguez.

Two minutes 29 seconds separate the quartet with Horner now just 28 seconds adrift.

With time bonuses on the line can these four allow a breakaway to get too far up the road.

The stage is a total of 186.5km long and travels northwards from Burgos to Pena Cabarga.

It takes in four categorised climbs. The first three are 3rd Cat, the Alto de Bocos (3km long & 6.6%), Alto Estacas de Trueba (10.9km & 3.2%) and Puerto de la Braguia (6.1km & 6.3%).

The next up is the second category Alto del Caracol, 10.6km and 5.6%.

They will be perfect places to soften up the field and for the challengers to try and isolate Nibali from his Astana team.

However the decisive moves should all come on the final climb.

At 5.9km long it doesn't sound too bad until you look at the gradients that it will tackle.

An average of 9.2% it only has around 1km where the gradient drops below this. And as the riders head under the red kite it maxes out at 20%.

All four are more than capable of handling that type of gradient but for me Rodriguez looks the strongest right now.

He has a habit of riding himself into a tour and he seems to be doing so again. He also has the most time to claw back so I imagine he will be very active on the climb.

If the four look at each other and ignore everyone else then look to the likes of Nico Roche, Domenico Pozzovivo, Thibault Pinot and Leopold Konig could all be involved.

But the top four will want the time bonuses. And if that is the case look to Purito to steal the day.

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 15 Preview

STAGE 15 keeps us in the Pyrenees as we head out of Andorra, back into Spain before entering France for the day's finish.

It follows an absolutely brutal day today which saw no less than 16 men abandon the race and Vincenzo Nibali increase his advantage to 50 seconds over Chris Horner.

One of the pre-stage favourites Ivan Basso cited hypothermia as his reason for withdrawing and you would be very hard faced to disbelieve him.

And the bad news for those remaining is the weather doesn't look like getting any better.

Tomorrow's finish should cause outbreaks of deja-vu for most cycling fans, especially British ones.

Stage 17 of the 2012 edition of the Tour de France saw Sir Bradley Wiggins cement his position on top of the standings and almost guaranteed him the title, a fact he was well aware of as he crossed the line with a knowing grin.

It is possible just as famous as being the stage that Chris Froome tried to drag his team leader across to the one man who had escaped the Sky duo. For a lot of the climb it seemed as if Froome could catch the escapee and take the day's honours.

However he played the part of loyal domestique and stayed with his team leader, gifting the win to the lone rider.

The winner of that stage is in this years Tour of Spain and will definitely fancy his chances of a repeat. But we'll get to him in a minute.

First up let's get the numbers and details out of the way. At 224.9km (139.7miles) long this is the longest stage in this year's Vuelta.

It takes the field from Andorra to Peyragudes. Four first category climbs, including the summit finish, stand in the way.

The first is the Puerto del Canto. This is the longest climb of the day at 24.4km but has the lowest average gradient at 4.2% and it's maximum is 'just' 10%, again the lowest of the four climbs.

That said it will still be a tough introduction to the days stage, starting as it does just 7km after the start. It won't affect the overall contenders who will want to keep their powder dry until later but it will probably see a sizeable breakaway disappear over the horizon.

The next climb is the Puerto de la Bonaigua, a 20km long slog with an average gradient of 5.5% and a maximum of 12.5%, appearing around halfway up.

From it's summit there are still 124km to race so don't expect too much action up here from the GC boys.

However once we hit the town of Mauleon Bauresse with 51km to go that could all change.

It is from this point the route mirrors that of the 2012 Tour and it also signifies the start of the Port de Bales.

The Bales climbs for 19.2km and has an average gradient of 6.2%. It actually starts off fairly serenely and the first 8km only average around 3%. From that point though it rarely drops below 8%, with it's maximum of 10.5% coming with around 3km to go to the summit.

The last climb is more or less just the Col de Peyresourde with a small descent followed by the last slog up to Peyragudes.

It is a total of 16.7km in length but only has an average gradient of 4.7%. However this is due entirely to the 2km of descending.

The Col de Peyresourde is 10km long and has an average gradient of around 7.5%. It's maximum gradient is 13.3% and is sure to be a test.

The last ramp up to Peyragudes is only around 3km long but it's average is 6.7% and has a maximum ramp of 11.7%.

The descent in the middle will play into the hands of Nibali. He is excellent when the road points down over and depending on how the stage is going could well use this, or the kilometre before it, as his springboard to get away.

The likes of Nico Roche and Joaquin Rodriguez should be able to keep him in view here so it will be up to the lighter climbers, the Chris Horner's and Domenico Pozzovivo's of this world, to attack on the steeper uphill sections.

And as I mentioned yesterday Euskatel will do something with any of their big hitters to the fore.

Four outsiders look towards the Colombian trio of Carlos Alberto Betancur of AG2R and Sergio Henao or Rigoberto Uran of Team Sky. All haven't been in the best of form recently but may see this as a chance to steal the glory.

However my favourite is the man who escaped the clutches of Wiggins and Froome in 2012.

Alejandro Valverde.

He will be able to match both the climbers and Nibali on both the ascents and descents. That victory in 2012 gave him so much self belief and was the catalyst for an upturn in fortunes and I believe it will act as a spur here again.

Movistar will also be keen to record a victory as they have yet to taste success so far in this Vuelta. And with the likes of Eros Capecchi, Benat Intauxsti and Sylvester Szmyd in their ranks, expect them to try and set something up.

If the weather doesn't beat them all.

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 14 Preview

THOSE people who watched the Tour de France this year will remember stage 8 and the first entry into the Pyrenees.

It saw Chris Froome and Team Sky destroy their opposition and ultimately set up his overall victory in Paris two weeks later.

Tomorrow sees the Vuelta a Espana enter the big mountain chain. And all expectations are it could be equally as explosive.

Stage 14 takes the riders from Baga and into Andorra, finishing 155.7km later on top of the Collada de la Gallina.

Along the route there are three climbs to overcome before the final dash up the category 1 Gallina.

First up is the familiar Port de Envalira. The hors categorie (HC) climb has figured many times in both Le Tour and the Vuelta. It was last used in 2009 at the beginning of a stage and fittingly it was Sandy Casar who crested it first, the Frenchman having just announced his retirement from the sport yesterday.

The last time it was used in the Vuelta was in 2003 as a stage finish and it was Alejandro Valverde had his hands raised in triumph that time, as he headed towards an overall third position.

The climb is a whopping 26.7km long with an average gradient of 5.2%. Now that might not seem a lot but if hits ramps of 9-10% in the opening 3km and maxes out at 15% towards the top.

It's summit here is 68.4km from the finish and so won't decide the stage outcome but it will begin the big thinning out of the peloton.

The descent off the Envalira takes us to within 47km off the line but there are still two category 2 climbs to come.

The first is the Coll de Ordino which is 8.8km and has an average gradient of 4.9%. The second is the Alto de la Comella, shorter at 4km but slightly more difficult at 5%.

Neither will split the field asunder but if the pace is kept high it will not only discourage attacks but also shell a few more out the back.

Once off the Comella there is only a short run through the valley before starting the final ascent.

The Gallina is 7.2km long but has an average gradient of 8%. It has a section in the middle which hits 15% while the final two kilometres hit 9% rising to 10%.

It will mean a tough run to the line and throws up many alternative winners.

Chris Horner has looked very strong on the climbs so far and I'm sure he will want to win the jersey back. Expect an attack at some point.

Vincenzo Nibali currently has that jersey and will want to defend it. He left his run a little too late to close down Horner on stage 10 and won't want to make that mistake again.

The two other big Spaniards may fancy their chances also. Valverde will like this finish although he may also have an eye on Sunday's stage.

Joaquin Rodriguez has the comfort of a 2.33 deficit to Nibali and this mean the top four riders may not respond as quickly if he attacked. If can get a gap he could be gone for the win. However he hasn't looked in the best of form recently but on his day, he would be the favourite.

Nico Roche has been exceptional so far and is definitely having his best ever grand tour. He should be able to hold the others to a fairly reasonable gap but I can't see him challenging for the stage win.

Of the others, well look no further than Euskatel. This is their territory but following the takeover by F1 world champion Fernando Alonso they will be losing their Basque persona.

I'm sure the Basque fans will continue to support them as vociferously as before but I'm also sure the team will want to put on a show. Expect at least one in the break and if one of (if not all) of Igor Anton, Mikel Nieve and Sammy Sanchez don't appear at the head of affairs I will be most surprised!

Before the tour started I would have said David Arroyo would have been on the offensive in the mountains but he hasn't looked at his best so far. Don't count him out though.

Domenico Pozzovivo was amazing in the time trial and is more than suited to these type of steep climbs.  Has a chance.

Ivan Basso has looked really good as well in recent mountainous days. Can this be the day he makes an attack stick? He certainly will attack so why not.

Finally Carlos Alberto Betancur would have been a favourite for the Tour and this stage. But illness and a lack of competition put paid to that before it started. He will be getting better so expect at least one showing in the last week. The question is when. And why not today?

Lots of opportunities for a lot of riders. Whatever happens it will be exciting. You want me to pick one? I was afraid of that!

Joaquin Rodriguez then.

That's the mockers put on him!

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 11 Preview

FIRTSLY, an apology. Totally mixed up when the rest day was and missed Stage 10's preview up a savagely steep final climb.

If it's any consolation I'd have probably gone for a Domenico Pozzovivo type and certainly wouldn't have picked eventual winner and new leader of the Tour Chris Horner.

Horner's ride has stretched the time gaps at the top. Prior to stage 10 the top ten was separated by 1.25. They are now covered by 3.28.

Two former Vincenzo Nibali is second at 43 seconds with Nico Roche third at 53 seconds.

It means that stage 11 will need to be pivotal for some, as it seems every stage so far has been.

Wednesday's stage is an Individual Time Trial, totalling 38.8km in length, and including the 3rd category Alto del Moncayo.

It should alter the overall standings once more as those riders who aren't pure climbers try to steal back some more time.

Nibali and Alejandro Valverde should be able to produce good rides as should ninth place Rafal Majka. All will be towards the top of the day's rankings.

Joaquin Rodriguez and Roche will see this as a chance to cement their

Roche has been particularly impressive during this Vuelta and is perhaps showing the grand tour form that a lot of people have expected from him. His time trialing ability has often been his Achilles heel so the climb should help him out.

Rodriguez though should be the big favourite from those in the top five and at 1.40 behind Horner he needs to put in a good ride.

Horner has been outstanding so far in this race and while he can produce a decent TT, he will need to tap into that top form if he is to limit his losses. I don't expect him to lose the leaders jersey however.

Outside of the top GC boys those looking for the stage win should be the likes of Janez Brajkovic, Roman Kreuziger and Sammy Sanchez.

Other outsiders would include the BMC pair of Marco Pinotti and Dominik Nerz and Lieuwe Westra of Vaconsoleil. All three have had indifferent form recently but are more than capable of doing something here.

It would also be remiss to not mention Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin when taking about an individual time trial.

World Champion Martin put in that sensational effort on stage five as a test for the upcoming defence of his title. On that form alone he looks in tip-top condition. Spartacus is also aiming for a world title although he has his eyes on the road race rather than the test against the clock. This would be a perfect test for him to judge his form.

It has been a fantastic tour for the fans to watch so far and I can't see the twists and turns stopping here.

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 9 Preview

STAGE nine is classed as a medium mountain stage. But the last kilometre will see gradients as high as most climbs across the entire Vuelta.

The stage itself is one of the shorter ones, at just 163.7km long, so could be one of the quicker ones. It takes the riders from Antequera to Valdepenas de Jaen and only crosses one categorised climb, the category 2 Alto de los Frailes.

That climb is around 6km long and averages in the region of 5.5% to 6%.

It is a steady climb and with it's summit just 16.2km from the finish it is the perfect place to soften the peloton up at the very least.

The descent is fairly quick without too many technical sections so anyone who can descend well will be able to put some under a whole lot of pressure.

One man who can descend well is Vincenzo Nibali. I wouldn't imagine he will put too much hurt on the other favourites but he will be at the front of them all come the final slog up Valdepenas.

Having said that he didn't look good up the final part of today's climb, although there were reports of a slipped chain which hindered his progress.

The last 2km sees the road climb at an average of 6% but with the final kilometre hitting parts above 10%.

It is a finish which shares a lot of characteristics to those in Belgium and Holland and that are seen along the route of some of the Northern Classics like Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the Tour of Flanders.

Nibali will be a very good bet for this stage as would the Colombian pairing of Carlos Betancur and Sergio Henao.

Joaquin Rodriguez and Roman Kreuziger are another two who have both been victorious in the Spring Monuments and will like the look of this finish. Kreuziger though wasn't comfortable today and unless he was taking it easy he may not be up for this.

For outsiders the two contested the finish a few days ago, World Champion Phillipe Gilbert and Zdenek Stybar are both more than capable of doing something here as is Nicolas Roche.

Roche took the red jersey today after a superb effort to latch on to the Ivan Basso attack. He has looked in the best form of his career and after promising so much in grand tours over the last few years could this be the time he actually delivers?

I get the feeling though that a breakaway may contest the finish today. Always hard to predict who will manage to get in there but riders from Vaconsoleil (maybe Tomasz Marcynski) and Euskatel (Igor Anton or Egoi Martinez?) will want to be part of it and Caja-Rural will always look to put somebody in there.

It is another stage which won't decide the destiny of this Vuelta. But it will put the hurt on a lot of riders. And that could be crucial come the last week.

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 8 Preview

STAGE Eight sees the focus switch from the sprinters back to the overall contenders.

The riders will travel a total of 166.6km from Jerez de la Frontera to Estepona - Alto Penas Blancas.

The climb up to the finish climbs 960m at an average gradient of 6.6% although after 2km it maxes out at a gradient of 12.5%.

It does level out somewhat after this but the final 8km has an average gradient of 7.8%. And it climbs for the last 5km at an average gradient of 6%.

It means that if one team can get the speed high and keep it at that level, then it will be a very reduced peloton.

Movistar are the obvious team to do this. They have brought a squad filled with climbing super-domestiques, the likes of Sylvester Szmyd, Eros Capecchi and Pablo Lastras.

They should be able to keep the speed up to allow Alejandro Valverde to make his move.

The problem will be how many of his rivals will they get rid of.

Vincenzo Nibali should be able to stay with them. Joaquin Rodriguez should also manage to handle the intensity. However after that it depends on how much people have recovered.

The likes of Sammy Sanchez, Sergio Henao and Carlos Betancur have all been suffering with various ailments. Henao blamed stage two's travails on the 'knock'. Betancur has been ill and not raced since the Giro. Sanchez is another that hasn't raced much and is struggling for form.

But they have now had a week to recover and have the ability for certain to be close.

It will be very interesting to see how the Saxo-Tinkoff trio of Nicolas Roche, Roman Kreuziger and Rafal Majka go. All three, and Roche in particular, have looked very good so far. Roche is having his best tour of his life and this may not be the stage he struggles on.

Others to look out for are Euskatel's Mikel Nieve, who may be heading towards the leadership of his team, and Caja-Rural's David Arroyo. This shouldn't be the stage where we see them make their big moves but if they are there for the finish, expect them to have a go for the stage win.

Belkin's Laurens Ten Dam, by his own admission, found the opening climb tough. He has been coming into form so may look at this as being a stage to go for.

Lesser names to look out for are Domenico Pozzovivo and Ivan Santaromita.

But for outsiders look towards the Sky duo of Henao and Rigoberto Uran. The younger Colombian lost a lot of time of stage two and is now in 41st position, 2.59 behind Nibali. His more experienced team mate has taken the de-facto leadership of Team Sky and sits 7th, just 28 seconds behind. If anybody wants to disrupt Movistar's train then these two could be the ones to do it.

Expect Henao to go and if he gets caught close to the line, expect Uran to jump and go for the win.

Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 2 Preview

THERE is definitely no gradual riding yourself in to this Tour, as stage two shows.

It's 177.7km from Pontevedra to Baiona Alto Do Monte Da Groba. For 167km it seems like a standard opening stage of any grand tour. An inevitable break will go up the road but be reeled in before the finish.

Along the way there is one 3rd category climb to overcome which has it's summit over 100km from the finish.

However it is the final 10km which will prove to be crucial.

The climb of Alto do Monte da Groba rises 620m at an average gradient 5.6% although it does reach a maximum gradient of 10%.

It could go one of two ways.

The first scenario is the big favourites may want to test each other out and gain as much time as possible over the others.

The second option is that nobody will want to lose too much time so it may be a case of everybody just looks at each other and doesn't attack until the stage victory is in sight.

Either way it will still be a reduced peloton that crosses the line.

The opening TTT has thrown up few surprises.

Astana, and Vincenzo Nibali in particular, were the big winners, taking the stage and opening some big gaps on the rest.

He now has 22 seconds lead over Sergio Henao, 29 seconds over Alejandro Valverde, 32 seconds over Roman Kreuziger and a whopping 59 seconds over Joaquin Rodriguez.

Others fared even worse. The Euskatal trio of Mikel Nieve, Sammy Sanchez and Igor Anton find themselves 1.14 down and Dan Martin of Garmin is already 1.41 back.

I can imagine Astana trying to keep the jersey for the moment. Janez Brajkovic is more the capable of recording a good ride overall and they won't want to surrender their well earned advantage,

I also imagine it will be tough for some to break clear and be allowed to stay there. One man who might is David Arroyo of Caja Rural. The small Spanish side will be active on most days as they attempt to get their name of TV as much as possible.

But in Arroyo they have a man who is more than capable of making the top 10 and even higher. Be warned. His is a name I will mention a lot during this tour as there is definitely a stage win somewhere along the line with his name on!

However he might be a little high profile to be allowed to get away so easily. In which case look to team mate Amets Txurruka as a potential winner of this stage. A good climber he will be on the break at least once and this stage could be made for him.

But it is still more likely to be one of the big guns who takes the honours. So Valverde, Rodriguez or Henao could be the ones with their arms aloft by the end.

Still so much racing ahead and still so many questions unanswered. Enjoy it though!

Vuelta a Espana - Stage 1 & Overall Preview

Just five weeks after Chris Froome raised his arms in triumph on the Champs-Elysees, the final grand tour of the year kicks off in the North West corner of Spain.

The Vuelta a Espana is probably the lesser of the three grand tours but it is possibly the toughest. Where the Tour de France had seven flat stages, the Vuelta has only six. 11 medium & high mountain stages in France are replaced by 13 in Spain.

The Vuelta will also see 39 mountain passes including some like the Alto de L'Angrilu, a 12.2 km long climb with an average gradient of 10.2% and a staggering maximum of 23.5%.

All in all it means a hard, tough but wide open race.

Giro d'Italia winner Vincenzo Nibali leads the potential winners but has company in the likes of Alejandro Valverde, Joaquin Rodriguez, Sammy Sanchez, Carlos Betancur and Sergio Henao.

This is by no means an exhaustive list because the likes of Domenico Pozzovivo, Rigoberto Uran, Mikel Nieve, Igor Anton, Jacob Fuglsang, Bauke Mollema, Laurens Ten Dam, David Arroyo, Ivan Basso, Thibault Pinot, Dan Martin, Michele Scarponi, Roman Kreuziger and Rafal Majka are all more than capable of recording a top 10 place, or higher.

A lot will depend on riders form. Some like Valverde and Rodriguez have come out of the Tour so questions exist in whether they have kept their fitness up. Others like Betancur and Nibali haven't raced much, or in Betancur's case at all, since the Giro so may be a little race rusty to begin with.

As I sit here now I cannot pick a winner, it is that open.

It is possibly why the organisers have thrown a difficult start at the peloton. The first chance for the sprinters doesn't appear until stage six. There are summit finishes which should stretch the time gaps out and give the GC guys plenty to aim at.

It all starts though with an evening Team Time Trial over 27.4km. Last year Movistar took the honours and have come to the Vuelta with a very strong team so it would be a massive surprise to see them out of the top three.

Other potential winners will be Garmin-Sharp and Orica Green-Edge who shocked everyone by winning the TTT in the Tour.

For me though Team Saxo Tinkoff look like the boys to beat. Kreuziger, Majka, have also got a strong team behind them with the likes of Nicolas Roche, Chris Anker-Sorensen and Nicki Sorensen and should put in a very strong performance.

It will be an interesting start to what should be a fascinating tour.

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 20 Preview

THIS may be classed as the penultimate stage but it is in fact the last chance saloon for anyone wanting to improve their overall standing.

And the organisers have given them a perfect chance to go out in style!
The route is short. At just 125km long (or 77.6 miles) it is the shortest road stage of this years tour. However that doesn't make it easy at all.

We travel from Annecy via a circular route, which includes five categorized climbs before the final ascent to the ski resort at Annecy-Semnoz.

Because of the shortness of the stage and the fact there is no more after this, expect attacks from the word go.

First up after just 7km it is the Cote du Puget, a category 2 climb which is 5.4km long at an average of 5.9%. Within 5km of this summit we are at the top of the category 3 Col de Leschaux. This is only 3.6km long but has an average gradient of 6.1%.
 
Saxo Tinkoff, Movistar and Katusha will all be off and running here with a two-fold plan. To break Chris Froome, or at the very least isolate him, and to distance the others. By the top of these two climbs we could be down to a very select group.

We haven't got far from here to the next pair of climbs. The Cote d'Aillon-le-Vieux is a cat 3 and climbs 4% over it's 6km length. It is 8km from this summit to the next. The Col des Pres is again category 3 and is another shorter climb at 3.4km. But like the Leschaux it has a high average gradient, this time 6.9%.

It will depend on how things have gone over the first two climbs as to whether these two provide any fireworks. There will be some movement but whether it is from the main protagonists is debatable.

And that's partly because of what comes next. The Mont Revard is a category 1 climb which starts just 12km later. It is 15.9km, and although it's average gradient is just 5.6% there are parts at the bottom that get above 8% and one part that even tops 10%.

The descent off the Revard could be just as pivotal. Very twisty and very technical it plays into the hands of someone like Alberto Contador, Joaquin Rodriguez or Alejandro Valverde. Froome will hope he still has allies, although by this point he will probably be down to just Richie Porte, because they will really test his descending abilities here.

With around 15km along the valley floor to go before the final assault, if he gets distanced he will find himself in a very lonely world, full of pain and hardship.

The final climb of this years Tour de France will see the final showdown. Annecy-Semnoz is 'hors categorie' and stretches out for 10.7km. It's average gradient is 8.5% but we are above 9% for 4km of it. There's a little 'false flat' about 3km into it which ironically comes just after the steepest part. From there on we don't go below 8% so it will be a long hard, constant slog.

The stage win is almost secondary on a day like this. It will all be about the GC and it will be those riders that will cross the line first. For me Nairo Quintana is the favourite. He's been denied once or twice so far but I think this will be his day. I don't think he'll get enough time to take over the yellow but the stage win will be well with in his grasp.

His challengers will be the usual suspects. Rodriguez has been in sparkling form in this last week and is a serious challenger to the podium spots of the Saxo Tinkoff duo of Contador and Roman Kreuziger.

Froome should be content to come out of today in one piece. He will have been hit from all angles and all-comers today so shouldn't be up for the stage win.

I can't really see any outsiders getting among the action. Mikel Nieve and Pierre Rolland may be up for any King of the Mountain points they can get but that will be about it. Bauke Mollema has struggled a little over the last few days so he may feature in the top 20 but possibly nothing more.

The only thing that may throw a spanner in the works is the weather. Thunderstorms have been forecast for the last few days but we have managed to avoid them so far. If the rain does come today then the descent off the Revard for example will be frightening. And if the clouds are too low it may affect TV coverage as well!

Whatever happens it's going to be a fantastic and memorable finish to what has been one of the most attacking and exciting tours in recent years.

And I can't wait!

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 18 Preview

I MAY have already said this earlier in the race but if I did, and apologies if I did, I lied! Because THIS is the one stage not to miss!

The organisers have wanted to include as many iconic and infamous monuments to the tour as possible, and no tour is complete without the inclusion of Alpe d'Huez.

The Alpe is 13.8km with an average of 8.4%. It starts however at a gradient of 10.4% and just after the village of Huez it maxes out at 11.5%.

It is so iconic and so linked to the tour that each of it's famous 21 hairpin bends are named after previous winners here.

But it is not just the numbers or the hairpin bends that make it so memorable. For this, to the average cycling fan, is Mecca, Glastonbury and Las Vegas all rolled into one.

They come in their thousands. For years it used to be known as Dutch mountain as the Netherlanders turned the mountain orange. Now each corner seems to be adopted by a country, turn 10 for example is I believe Irish corner.

The road up to the Alpe was closed on Sunday, making the only way up it either by bike or on foot. People will have started camping there from last weekend, and possibly even earlier.

By the Tour arrives the atmosphere will be at fever pitch and it has been known for the crowd to get a little bit out of hand.

Taking all of this together makes the Alpe one of sport's greatest spectacles. But the organisers have taken it a step further this year.

Because we don't just climb it once, we're going up it twice!

For the first time in Tour history we are going to peel right and head over the the second category Col de Sarenne before heading back down to Le Bourg-d'Oisans and doing it all over again.

The stage itself runs a total of 172.5km from Gap to Alpe-d'Huez and takes in a total of six climbs, the Col de Manse (cat 2), Rampe du Motty (cat 3), Col d'Ornon (cat 2) as well as the two ascents of the Alpe (cat HC) and the Sarenne (cat 2).

It will be a stage that will see plenty of attacking from the GC men but the timing could be critical. Do you go on the first climb of the Alpe? The final run up? Do you try your luck on the tricky and technical descent of the Sarenne?

Then there is the question of who are you attacking. Following the time trial Chris Froome has opened up a massive lead over his nearest rival. Alberto Contador is second but he is 4 min 34 seconds adrift. Bauke Mollema is now 4th but has slipped to 6.23.

People will still want to put Froome under pressure on the off chance he will crack big style but the likelihood, barring any mechanical or other mishap, is that the Brit will ride into Paris on Sunday as the victor.
  So if Froome is now practically out of reach, focus for the rest of the top men will be on the remaing two steps on the podium and in making/retaining a top 10 position. And there are plenty of opportunities here.

If the top contenders keep looking at each other then someone may get away and gain a bit of time. We saw this on Mont Ventoux as the likes of Sylvain Chavanel and Mikel Nieve had a go and for a while they managed to get away.

However that advantage didn't last for too long when the Sky hammer went down.

And I can't expect the same again up the Alpe. I really can't see anybody outside of the top GC men winning the stage. Froome will be desperate to win here in the yellow jersey, regardless of the fact he doesn't really need to chase down every move. It would rubber stamp his victory and would be prove he is the best rider by far in this race (even if it may not silence the doubters).

Movistar are clearly planning something too, evident by time trial specialist Jonathan Castroviejo and Andrey Amador taking it easy in the TT. They will look to use Alejandro Valverde and Rui Costa on the climbs, either as super-domestiques or by getting them to attack constantly, to set Nairo Quintana up for the win, and hopefully a podium spot.

Contador will still fancy his chances of catching Froome and Saxo Tinkoff will also want Roman Kreuziger, who has moved up to 3rd, to retain that podium spot. They used these two to attack Froome on Tuesday and expect both to be active again.

The Belkin pair of Laurens Ten Dam and Bauke Mollema will be under serious threat. Ten Dam lost a minute into Gap and I think will drop away from the top spots. Mollema has done well so far though, despite a tough time trial, and may be able to stay with Froome and co.

The only outsider I can come up with is Joaquin Rodriguez. He has had a poor tour by his standards but does seem to be showing signs of coming into form. He is afr enough down on GC to maybe be given a little leeway and that might be enough to snatch the stage win.

Depending on Movistar's tactics Valverde may sneak away but it is likely when Quintana attacks, and it is a case of when not if, he will be caught by Froome's group.

But two ascents of Alpe d'Huez will punish even the best riders, including Froome.
  Once again this legendary mountain will play host to another spectacular stage where anything could happen.

And one you really need to watch!


 

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 9 Preview

STAGE eight was the first of a two part Pyrenees adventure and boy did it deliver the fireworks we expected. Stage nine will have to really go some to match it but the profile certainly gives it a fighting chance!

 

It sees the field head from Saint-Girons to Bagneres-de-Bigorre but whereas the sat-nav will take you on a nice 110km ride through the valleys, the peloton face a 168.5km route which crosses one category 2 climb and four cat 1's.

 

It means a total of 42.9km of climbing although the final mountain comes 30km from the finish, leaving a long a fast run into the finish.

 

Team Sky absolutely blow their opposition apart on stage eight which means the responsibility of controlling the race falls to them. It is a difficult day to do so but it is not something that will phase or bother them.

 

Such was their domination that Chris Froome, and second placed Richie Porte, now have huge gaps over the other main rivals meaning they have to come out fighting if they want to get anything out of this race.

 

Just look at some of the gaps:

 

3 Alejandro Valverde - 1.25

7 Alberto Contador - 1.51

9 Joaquin Rodriguez - 2.31

23 Cadel Evans - 4.36

35 Ryder Hesjedal - 8.29

44 Tejay Van Garderen - 12.38!

 

For some, like Hesjedal and Van Garderen, barring a miracle the tour is already lost. It does mean that we must start talking about names that weren't considered challengers prior to the grand depart.

 

Movistar seem the most likely to challenge the British outfit. Valverde is now third after grimly hanging on to the coat-tails of Froome and Porte. He is 1.25 down.

 

Team mate Nairo Quinatna shrugged off 3 falls in 3 days to produce a great climbers display, reminiscent of the great Colombian climbers of the past like Luis Herrara and Fabio Parra. He couldn't fend off the charging Sky express though and finds himself 8th at 2.02 behind.

 

Rui Costa is the third challenger. He dropped away late on in the stage but is just 2.45 down in 11th. It allows Movistar to 'gang up' on Sky if they want by sending different attackers up the road and force them to chase.

 

Some of the strongest men of the day were the Belkin duo of Laurens Ten Dam and Bauke Mollema. They finished fourth and fifth respectively on the stage and are now fourth and fifth overall as well, 1.44 and 1.50 behind.

 

Roman Kreuziger also looked strong but had to wait for his team leader Contador. If the Spaniard continues to suffer expect the Czech to be given leadership of Saxo Tinkoff.

 

I can see one of three things happening today.

 

Firstly we could see the likes of Evans, Valverde and Contador attack in an attempt not only to gain time back but also isolate Froome.

 

Secondly the main favourites will all just watch each other and roll into town together in a reduced peloton.

 

The third option seems the more likely. If Sky can engineer it properly a breakaway should head off up the road and not be seen again.

 

There is a total of 45 mountains points up for grab and those who have designs on that jersey will want to be involved.

 

Pierre Rolland is one of these riders and at almost five minutes down Sky may well be happy to let him go.

 

Others who may possibly want to get into the break to enhance their chances in that competition are AG2R's John Gadret, FDJ's Arnold Jeanesson and Lampre's Przemyslaw Niemic.

 

Movistar may want to put someone in there like Andrey Amador. The Costa Rican would be a perfect man to put into the break for Valverde and co. He is a good climber, can time-trial well and could still be a danger overall. Sky would be nervous about the likes of him but may be content to let him get a small gap.

 

Thomas Voeckler won this competition last year and this stage looks perfect for him. He is far enough down as well to be allowed to leave so it would be a shock not to see him in the break.

 

Compatriot Sylvain Chavanel is another who will like the look of this profile.

 

For me it's between these two for the stage. If it came to a sprint Chava would be the favourite but this just stage just has Tommy written over it. Expect him to be in the break and then make a crazy attack....and make it stick!

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 8 Preview

STAGE eight will really throw the cat amongst the pigeons as the race moves into the Pyrenees and the high mountains.

For a week now I have been talking of the likes of Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan and Andre Greipel. However don't expect to hear or read anything about them for a good few days.

Instead It will be the big favourites who the focus will switch to, the riders who have designs of standing on top of the podium in Paris. This is their first chance to really show what they are about.

The stage is 195km long and goes from Castres to 3-Ax Domaines. A small cat 4 climb 26km into the stage is a mere footnote of what is to come.

First up is the Col de Paiheres which is an HC mountain, i.e. beyond categorisation, and tops out at 2001m above sea level. It is 15.3km long (that's 9.5 miles) and has an average gradient of 8%. It's maximum gradient is 10.5% which it reaches for 2km of it's total length. It's summit is just 29km from the finish.

This will be where the first shots fired in anger will take place. Those that want the stage win and those targeting the King of the Mountains jersey will definitely attack here. The main GC contenders may wait until the final climb.

That climb of 3-Ax Domaines is a Cat 1 and climbs 607m to finish 1350m above sea level. It is shorter in length than the Paiheres at 7.8km although it has a steeper average gradient of 8.2%.

The last time we were here in 2010 the winner was Christophe Riblon of AG2R, which came from a breakaway. It is unlikely that this will be the outcome again.

The one definite we have is that there will be a new yellow jersey come teatime on Saturday. The question is will it be the final change of this years Tour?

If all the favourites were to come in together Team Sky's Chris Froome would take over the lead, level on time with his team mate Richie Porte. Third would be Alberto Contador who would find himself just 6 seconds behind.

Froome is the better time trialer so others, like Contador and Joaquin Rodriguez, must try and put some time into him in the mountains. Sky will know this and will be quite happy to set a fast pace on the final climb in much the same way as they did on La Planche des Belle Filles last year, a stage that saw Froome take the stage and Sir Bradley Wiggins take the race leadership.

That day they blew virtually the full race apart and I would expect them to try something similar here. This mountain is longer than La Planche but not as steep and while some of the personnel has changed, Sky certainly still has the firepower to make it difficult.

They would be completely happy taking over the race lead as well and to defend it all the way to Paris. If the opportunity comes to take the stage as well they will take it so Froome or Porte are definitely in the mix for this one.

The others may be content to let them get on with it and not attack, knowing that tomorrow sees an even harder stage. But if they want to have any chance of winning the tour they can't really wait and need to take every opportunity.

Contador is the type of rider to give it a go, on a number of occasions if necessary. He didn't look on the best of form during the Criterium de Dauphine and admitted that he was only about 80-90%. However he also said that was where he wanted to be and by the tour he would be 100%. He has stayed out of trouble so far and I think he will be able to stay with the Sky train. It would be a big a big surprise if he gets distanced.

BMC have the twin threats of Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen. Evans has come here as the team leader with the young American acting as his main support. Evans managed to stay with Sky last year and while I don't think he'll attack, he should be able to finish with the leaders. Any slip from him though and Van Garderen will be ready to take over his mantle, should the team decree it.

Rodriguez has no choice, he has to attack and gain time in the mountains. He is not good against the clock and after the TTT he finds himself 25 seconds behind Froome. Whether he finishes in front of, with or behind Froome on this stage will depend on the number and severity of his attacks. Shouldn't lose too much time though, if any.

It will be interesting to see how the others go. Movistar have an all star climbing team with Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa, Amedy Amador and Nairo Quintana, although the Colombian wonderkid seems to have spent more time on the floor recently than the bike. Garmin likewise bring some big climbing talent in Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin and Andrew Talansky. Both teams will want to test the waters at some point in the Pyrenees. They should have strength in depth but can they challenge the Sky dominance?

Elsewhere Bauke Mollema had a wonderful Tour de Suisse, winning stage two and finishing second overall, and he has enjoyed a fairly trouble free tour so far. He could give the low countries something to cheer about after their big favourite Jurgen Van de Broeck withdrew on stage 6.

Astana have had an awful tour so far losing Andrey Kashechkin, Janez Brajkovic and Robert Kiserlovski. It will be up to Jakob Fuglsang to try and rescue the situation, although without his best three  lieutenants in the mountains it will be difficult. Don't rule him out as an outsider though.

But if you want an outsider for the stage then think Orange!

The Pyrenees are the domain of the Basque's. Their red and green flags will be very visible throughout our stay in the mountains as will their team, Euskatel-Euskadi.  Euskatel do not have anyone who can really challenge for the overall win but they do have some very good climbers in their ranks and in Igor Anton and Mikel Nieve they have two men who could well be targeting a top 10 finish in Paris.

Expect them to be on the attack for the full day and look to Nieve as an outsider for the stage.

With this being the first foray into the mountains you can't be certain of anything yet. We will know more by the end of the day however and if you've never watched cycling before, this is the stage for you!

The Tour begins in earnest now!