THERE is definitely no gradual riding yourself in to this Tour, as stage two shows.
It's 177.7km from Pontevedra to Baiona Alto Do Monte Da Groba. For 167km it seems like a standard opening stage of any grand tour. An inevitable break will go up the road but be reeled in before the finish.
Along the way there is one 3rd category climb to overcome which has it's summit over 100km from the finish.
However it is the final 10km which will prove to be crucial.
The climb of Alto do Monte da Groba rises 620m at an average gradient 5.6% although it does reach a maximum gradient of 10%.
It could go one of two ways.
The first scenario is the big favourites may want to test each other out and gain as much time as possible over the others.
The second option is that nobody will want to lose too much time so it may be a case of everybody just looks at each other and doesn't attack until the stage victory is in sight.
Either way it will still be a reduced peloton that crosses the line.
The opening TTT has thrown up few surprises.
Astana, and Vincenzo Nibali in particular, were the big winners, taking the stage and opening some big gaps on the rest.
He now has 22 seconds lead over Sergio Henao, 29 seconds over Alejandro Valverde, 32 seconds over Roman Kreuziger and a whopping 59 seconds over Joaquin Rodriguez.
Others fared even worse. The Euskatal trio of Mikel Nieve, Sammy Sanchez and Igor Anton find themselves 1.14 down and Dan Martin of Garmin is already 1.41 back.
I can imagine Astana trying to keep the jersey for the moment. Janez Brajkovic is more the capable of recording a good ride overall and they won't want to surrender their well earned advantage,
I also imagine it will be tough for some to break clear and be allowed to stay there. One man who might is David Arroyo of Caja Rural. The small Spanish side will be active on most days as they attempt to get their name of TV as much as possible.
But in Arroyo they have a man who is more than capable of making the top 10 and even higher. Be warned. His is a name I will mention a lot during this tour as there is definitely a stage win somewhere along the line with his name on!
However he might be a little high profile to be allowed to get away so easily. In which case look to team mate Amets Txurruka as a potential winner of this stage. A good climber he will be on the break at least once and this stage could be made for him.
But it is still more likely to be one of the big guns who takes the honours. So Valverde, Rodriguez or Henao could be the ones with their arms aloft by the end.
Still so much racing ahead and still so many questions unanswered. Enjoy it though!
Showing posts with label Dan Martin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dan Martin. Show all posts
Saturday, 24 August 2013
Tuesday, 16 July 2013
Tour de France 2013 : Stage 17 Preview
CHRIS Froome gained huge amounts of time in the first of this year's Individual Time Trials. The second one however may not be as profitable for him.
At first glance they appear to be fairly similar. The stage into Mont-Saint-Michel was 33km long. Stage 17 takes the riders from Embrun to Chorges, which is a total of 32km. However that is where the similarity ends.
While the route to the Mont was flat this route includes not one but two Category 2 climbs.
Straight from the start hut the road goes up, climbing 6.4km up the Cote de Puy-Sanieres with an average gradient of 6%.
That is followed by a fairly technical descent before the road kicks up again over the Cote de Reallon. This is slightly longer at 6.9km and slightly steeper, with an average gradient of 6.3%.
It is then 12km downhill to the finish on a descent that is not as twisting as the first.
It is a route that will test the riders and tactics will have to be spot on. Do you go fast up the first climb? The second one? Do you climb steadily and then descend like a bat out of hell? What bike will you use? A time trial one or a standard road machine?
A lot of questions then to be asked and though it will alter the overall standings, it is unlikely to be the stage that finally answers the questions about the destination of the yellow jersey and podium spots.
Climbers who would usually lose time on a ITT stage will actually find themselves at the top of the standings here. Men like Nairo Quintana, Dan Martin would have normally lost 3 minutes to the likes of Froome and Tony Martin but not here.
Tony Martin himself may not be the favourite here. A great time trialler, these climbs may be too much for him. He still should produce a decent time though but I don't see him on the top step of the podium for the stage.
Having said all that Froome should still be the man to beat. He is excellent against the clock and is proving to be the strongest in the mountains. If he descends sensibly he will probably be the favourite.
But it is a really fascinating stage as there are a lot of men who could potentially win, or at least make the top 10.
Alberto Contador, Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger, Rui Costa and Micheal Kwiatkowski should all go well and consolidate their top 10 position overall.
Further down Joaquin Rodriguez, Quintana and Dan Martin shouldn't win the day but could put in very decent rides.
Outside of the big favourites look to Cadel Evans, Andrew Talansky and possibly Tejay Van Garderen.
For outsiders I like the look of Andrey Amador of Movistar. The Costa Rican can both climb and time trial. He has his focus on the Vuelta d'Espana but today could be a chance for him to see just how good his form is right now. Can definitely see him making the top 10 here.
Another outsider for the win would have been Thomas De Gendt of Vaconsoleil. He is currently 95th on GC, over one hour and 45 minutes behind Froome, but finished 3rd on the stage to Mont-Saint-Michel and finished on the podium in last year's Giro d'Italia after a fantastic ride on the Stelvio. He was in the break today but I would still not count him out.
It really is that difficult to call though. It should see Froome hold the majority of his advantage over the rest but the places below are definitely up for grabs.
But as we've seen so often during this 100th edition of Le Tour, expect anything!
At first glance they appear to be fairly similar. The stage into Mont-Saint-Michel was 33km long. Stage 17 takes the riders from Embrun to Chorges, which is a total of 32km. However that is where the similarity ends.
While the route to the Mont was flat this route includes not one but two Category 2 climbs.
Straight from the start hut the road goes up, climbing 6.4km up the Cote de Puy-Sanieres with an average gradient of 6%.
That is followed by a fairly technical descent before the road kicks up again over the Cote de Reallon. This is slightly longer at 6.9km and slightly steeper, with an average gradient of 6.3%.
It is then 12km downhill to the finish on a descent that is not as twisting as the first.
It is a route that will test the riders and tactics will have to be spot on. Do you go fast up the first climb? The second one? Do you climb steadily and then descend like a bat out of hell? What bike will you use? A time trial one or a standard road machine?
A lot of questions then to be asked and though it will alter the overall standings, it is unlikely to be the stage that finally answers the questions about the destination of the yellow jersey and podium spots.
Climbers who would usually lose time on a ITT stage will actually find themselves at the top of the standings here. Men like Nairo Quintana, Dan Martin would have normally lost 3 minutes to the likes of Froome and Tony Martin but not here.
Tony Martin himself may not be the favourite here. A great time trialler, these climbs may be too much for him. He still should produce a decent time though but I don't see him on the top step of the podium for the stage.
Having said all that Froome should still be the man to beat. He is excellent against the clock and is proving to be the strongest in the mountains. If he descends sensibly he will probably be the favourite.
But it is a really fascinating stage as there are a lot of men who could potentially win, or at least make the top 10.
Alberto Contador, Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger, Rui Costa and Micheal Kwiatkowski should all go well and consolidate their top 10 position overall.
Further down Joaquin Rodriguez, Quintana and Dan Martin shouldn't win the day but could put in very decent rides.
Outside of the big favourites look to Cadel Evans, Andrew Talansky and possibly Tejay Van Garderen.
For outsiders I like the look of Andrey Amador of Movistar. The Costa Rican can both climb and time trial. He has his focus on the Vuelta d'Espana but today could be a chance for him to see just how good his form is right now. Can definitely see him making the top 10 here.
Another outsider for the win would have been Thomas De Gendt of Vaconsoleil. He is currently 95th on GC, over one hour and 45 minutes behind Froome, but finished 3rd on the stage to Mont-Saint-Michel and finished on the podium in last year's Giro d'Italia after a fantastic ride on the Stelvio. He was in the break today but I would still not count him out.
It really is that difficult to call though. It should see Froome hold the majority of his advantage over the rest but the places below are definitely up for grabs.
But as we've seen so often during this 100th edition of Le Tour, expect anything!
Friday, 12 July 2013
Tour de France 2013 : Stage 14 Preview
WITH a huge stage coming on Sunday, the organisers could have given the peloton an easy run in to Lyon. But where's the fun in that!
Stage 14 sees the riders reach the foothills of the Alps as they travel 191km from Saint-Pourcain-sur-Sioule to Lyon.
The route takes in seven categorised climbs, two Cat 3's and five Cat 4's.
On their own they may not have caused the sprinters too much trouble. However put them all together and it is a safe bet you won't see the likes of Mark Cavendish or Marcel Kittel at the finish.
It is the two Category ascents in the middle of the stage which will cause the most damage. The Cote de Thizy-les-Bourgs is only 1.7km long but has an average gradient of 8.2%. This is followed less than 10km later by the Col du Pilon which has a far lower average gradient of just 4.4% but it goes on for 6.3km.
As these come straight after the day's intermediate sprint I can't imagine the sprinters busting a gut to stay with the peloton.
That is with one definite exception.
As with recent 'medium mountain' stages we could see a reduced peloton contest the sprint. And the current leader in the points classification is more than capable of getting over these lumps. Peter Sagan will be licking his lips at the thought of this stage as it could well see him extend his lead in the competition, to the point of his lead becoming almost unassailable.
He may have competition however. John Degenkolb of Argos Shimano can also get over the lumpy stuff as can the likes of Tony Gallopin of Radioshack and Francesco Gavazzi of Astana. Despite this the Slovakian should have more than enough in the tank to beat anyone today.
However there is the potential fly in his ointment and one which might deprive him of the win.
Chris Froome heads into this stage leading second placed Bauke Mollema by 2 minutes 28 seconds with third placed Alberto Contador 17 seconds behind that.
As Saxo Tinkoff proved today opportunities to reduce those gaps can come without warning. But to have any chance of winning the tour you have to take them and make Froome suffer.
Movistar also proved that it is possible to weaken the Brit and his all conquering Sky train last Sunday. And Sky are reeling at the minute. Having already seen climbing super domestique Vassili Kiryenka head home, they lost Edvald Boasson Hagen to injury on Thursday. With Geraint Thomas and Peter Kennaugh not at 100% either Froome is fast running out of support riders.
Stages are also getting less and less so the GC contenders will be well aware of that.
The final two climbs come within the last 15km and while not particularly taxing they could well prove to be a launching pad for someone to attack the Malliot Jaune. The likes of Joaquin Rodriguez, Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde could all fancy spreading their wings and going for it.
Valverde went into today's stage in second placed but he had an awful day as first a puncture and then crosswinds saw him lose contact with his main rivals, eventually finishing almost 10 minutes behind.
Movistar will also be angry at what they will perceive as poor sportsmanship by Belkin. (Belkin put more men at the front after Valverde punctured in order to aid their man Mollema's GC position)
I think Froome will be able to cope with one or two but where Movistar let themselves down into Bagneres-de-Biggore was that they didn't keep hitting him with constant attacks. If they or someone else can do that here they may weaken the Sky leader enough to claw back a handful of seconds.
Don't be surprised if the attacks come early as well. The earlier into the stage the more chance they have of hurting Sky, if not for today but certainly for tomorrow.
Movistar will probably be looking for a reaction after today and could be the main instigators of any attacking.
It will be an intriguing day of racing and is just part one of what could be a powder keg weekend!
Stage 14 sees the riders reach the foothills of the Alps as they travel 191km from Saint-Pourcain-sur-Sioule to Lyon.
The route takes in seven categorised climbs, two Cat 3's and five Cat 4's.
On their own they may not have caused the sprinters too much trouble. However put them all together and it is a safe bet you won't see the likes of Mark Cavendish or Marcel Kittel at the finish.
It is the two Category ascents in the middle of the stage which will cause the most damage. The Cote de Thizy-les-Bourgs is only 1.7km long but has an average gradient of 8.2%. This is followed less than 10km later by the Col du Pilon which has a far lower average gradient of just 4.4% but it goes on for 6.3km.
As these come straight after the day's intermediate sprint I can't imagine the sprinters busting a gut to stay with the peloton.
That is with one definite exception.
As with recent 'medium mountain' stages we could see a reduced peloton contest the sprint. And the current leader in the points classification is more than capable of getting over these lumps. Peter Sagan will be licking his lips at the thought of this stage as it could well see him extend his lead in the competition, to the point of his lead becoming almost unassailable.
He may have competition however. John Degenkolb of Argos Shimano can also get over the lumpy stuff as can the likes of Tony Gallopin of Radioshack and Francesco Gavazzi of Astana. Despite this the Slovakian should have more than enough in the tank to beat anyone today.
However there is the potential fly in his ointment and one which might deprive him of the win.
Chris Froome heads into this stage leading second placed Bauke Mollema by 2 minutes 28 seconds with third placed Alberto Contador 17 seconds behind that.
As Saxo Tinkoff proved today opportunities to reduce those gaps can come without warning. But to have any chance of winning the tour you have to take them and make Froome suffer.
Movistar also proved that it is possible to weaken the Brit and his all conquering Sky train last Sunday. And Sky are reeling at the minute. Having already seen climbing super domestique Vassili Kiryenka head home, they lost Edvald Boasson Hagen to injury on Thursday. With Geraint Thomas and Peter Kennaugh not at 100% either Froome is fast running out of support riders.
Stages are also getting less and less so the GC contenders will be well aware of that.
The final two climbs come within the last 15km and while not particularly taxing they could well prove to be a launching pad for someone to attack the Malliot Jaune. The likes of Joaquin Rodriguez, Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde could all fancy spreading their wings and going for it.
Valverde went into today's stage in second placed but he had an awful day as first a puncture and then crosswinds saw him lose contact with his main rivals, eventually finishing almost 10 minutes behind.
Movistar will also be angry at what they will perceive as poor sportsmanship by Belkin. (Belkin put more men at the front after Valverde punctured in order to aid their man Mollema's GC position)
I think Froome will be able to cope with one or two but where Movistar let themselves down into Bagneres-de-Biggore was that they didn't keep hitting him with constant attacks. If they or someone else can do that here they may weaken the Sky leader enough to claw back a handful of seconds.
Don't be surprised if the attacks come early as well. The earlier into the stage the more chance they have of hurting Sky, if not for today but certainly for tomorrow.
Movistar will probably be looking for a reaction after today and could be the main instigators of any attacking.
It will be an intriguing day of racing and is just part one of what could be a powder keg weekend!
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