CHRIS Froome gained huge amounts of time in the first of this year's Individual Time Trials. The second one however may not be as profitable for him.
At first glance they appear to be fairly similar. The stage into Mont-Saint-Michel was 33km long. Stage 17 takes the riders from Embrun to Chorges, which is a total of 32km. However that is where the similarity ends.
While the route to the Mont was flat this route includes not one but two Category 2 climbs.
Straight from the start hut the road goes up, climbing 6.4km up the Cote de Puy-Sanieres with an average gradient of 6%.
That is followed by a fairly technical descent before the road kicks up again over the Cote de Reallon. This is slightly longer at 6.9km and slightly steeper, with an average gradient of 6.3%.
It is then 12km downhill to the finish on a descent that is not as twisting as the first.
It is a route that will test the riders and tactics will have to be spot on. Do you go fast up the first climb? The second one? Do you climb steadily and then descend like a bat out of hell? What bike will you use? A time trial one or a standard road machine?
A lot of questions then to be asked and though it will alter the overall standings, it is unlikely to be the stage that finally answers the questions about the destination of the yellow jersey and podium spots.
Climbers who would usually lose time on a ITT stage will actually find themselves at the top of the standings here. Men like Nairo Quintana, Dan Martin would have normally lost 3 minutes to the likes of Froome and Tony Martin but not here.
Tony Martin himself may not be the favourite here. A great time trialler, these climbs may be too much for him. He still should produce a decent time though but I don't see him on the top step of the podium for the stage.
Having said all that Froome should still be the man to beat. He is excellent against the clock and is proving to be the strongest in the mountains. If he descends sensibly he will probably be the favourite.
But it is a really fascinating stage as there are a lot of men who could potentially win, or at least make the top 10.
Alberto Contador, Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger, Rui Costa and Micheal Kwiatkowski should all go well and consolidate their top 10 position overall.
Further down Joaquin Rodriguez, Quintana and Dan Martin shouldn't win the day but could put in very decent rides.
Outside of the big favourites look to Cadel Evans, Andrew Talansky and possibly Tejay Van Garderen.
For outsiders I like the look of Andrey Amador of Movistar. The Costa Rican can both climb and time trial. He has his focus on the Vuelta d'Espana but today could be a chance for him to see just how good his form is right now. Can definitely see him making the top 10 here.
Another outsider for the win would have been Thomas De Gendt of Vaconsoleil. He is currently 95th on GC, over one hour and 45 minutes behind Froome, but finished 3rd on the stage to Mont-Saint-Michel and finished on the podium in last year's Giro d'Italia after a fantastic ride on the Stelvio. He was in the break today but I would still not count him out.
It really is that difficult to call though. It should see Froome hold the majority of his advantage over the rest but the places below are definitely up for grabs.
But as we've seen so often during this 100th edition of Le Tour, expect anything!
Showing posts with label Cadel Evans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cadel Evans. Show all posts
Tuesday, 16 July 2013
Monday, 15 July 2013
Tour de France 2013 : Stage 16 Preview
CHRIS Froome delivered a sensational ride on Sunday up Mont Ventoux to put some big time gaps into his rivals for yellow.
It is the third time so far in this Tour that he has done so, following his stage victory into Ax-3-Domaines and the individual time trial at Mont-Saint-Michel.
Yet on both previous occasions his rivals managed to put him under pressure and gain some time back, with his isolation in Bagneres-de-Briggore and through the crosswinds into Saint-Amand-Montrond.
Stages are running out for them to do this a third time and if they are going to make any impact at the top of the overall standings they are going to have to launch attacks at every opportunity.
Stage 16 gives them their first chance in this final week. It is 168km long and sees the riders head from Vaison-la-Romaine to Gap, and the foothills of the Alps.
Three climbs await them, the third category Cote de la Montagne de Bluye and two second category ascents, the Col de Macuegne and the Col de Manse.
The first two of these come within the opening 48km and while they will provide a chance for the breakaway to form, which might be allowed to go all the way by the peloton, they won't affect the GC riders.
The Col de Manse will however.
The climb itself is 9.5km long and has it's summit 11.5km from the finish. The average gradient is 5.2% but there are over 2km where that gradient rises to 7% and over. A tough climb and will see some attacks. But the climb is just the appetiser to the main event.
The descent off the mountain is infamous and will be crucial. It has it's place in tour history as it was on this descent that Joseba Beloki crashed in front of Lance Armstrong, effectively ending Beloki's career and forcing Armstrong over a field and ditch before rejoining the road.
It is fast, technical and will test Froome's descending skills to their limits. And I imagine there are some who will think they can gain anywhere from 30 seconds to a minute on the leader.
Alberto Contador isn't a bad descender and will hope he can use that to gain any sort of an advantage over the Brit.
Roman Kreuziger is probably the best of the bunch and could well try to link up with his team leader to force a move.
Bauke Mollema is an unknown variable to me when it comes to descending. We know he can climb and his time trialling is good but I'll admit to not knowing what he's like on the descents. I think he will have a go though, at the very least to ensure he retains his second place overall. Same goes for Nairo Quintana.
And for some that will become more and more central to their tactics as the days and kilometres roll by, defending their current position in the GC. Finishing on the podium in Paris is a massive thing and for the likes of Mollema, Contador, Kreuziger and Quintana it will eventually become more important to defend that position than attack Froome.
I do think that if the break gets caught then the winner will come from someone outside of the top 10 overall. The likes of Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde and Sylvain Chavanel will be favourites for the win simply due to their ability to go downhill very fast, their bike handling skills and time trialling ability.
Another man who can do that is the current green jersey holder (and most likely winner of that competition) Peter Sagan. He's already proven he can sprint, climb and pull wheelies halfway up mountains. expect his descending skills to be put on show here!
If Evans is not up to it then maybe BMC will finally let World Champion Philippe Gilbert off the leash. The Belgian had spoken to the press earlier this month about the fact he wasn't allowed to attack and had to work for his leader.
However if the breakaway does succeed, and under normal circumstances there should be no real reason for Sky to chase it, then all bets are of as to who will win. I do think Pierre Rolland will be in there as he will want the points on offer for the King of the Mountains competition. Vaconsoleil will also have a rider in there, and as both Juan-Antonio Flecha and Wout Poels have been very active so far, it wouldn't be a shock to see one of them in the break.
But whether they are at the front or following the break in, it is going to be the GC boys who will provide the entertainment.
And if you have never seen a cyclist go down a hill faster than a motorbike, then you may want to watch from behind a sofa!
It is the third time so far in this Tour that he has done so, following his stage victory into Ax-3-Domaines and the individual time trial at Mont-Saint-Michel.
Yet on both previous occasions his rivals managed to put him under pressure and gain some time back, with his isolation in Bagneres-de-Briggore and through the crosswinds into Saint-Amand-Montrond.
Stages are running out for them to do this a third time and if they are going to make any impact at the top of the overall standings they are going to have to launch attacks at every opportunity.
Stage 16 gives them their first chance in this final week. It is 168km long and sees the riders head from Vaison-la-Romaine to Gap, and the foothills of the Alps.
Three climbs await them, the third category Cote de la Montagne de Bluye and two second category ascents, the Col de Macuegne and the Col de Manse.
The first two of these come within the opening 48km and while they will provide a chance for the breakaway to form, which might be allowed to go all the way by the peloton, they won't affect the GC riders.
The Col de Manse will however.
The climb itself is 9.5km long and has it's summit 11.5km from the finish. The average gradient is 5.2% but there are over 2km where that gradient rises to 7% and over. A tough climb and will see some attacks. But the climb is just the appetiser to the main event.
The descent off the mountain is infamous and will be crucial. It has it's place in tour history as it was on this descent that Joseba Beloki crashed in front of Lance Armstrong, effectively ending Beloki's career and forcing Armstrong over a field and ditch before rejoining the road.
It is fast, technical and will test Froome's descending skills to their limits. And I imagine there are some who will think they can gain anywhere from 30 seconds to a minute on the leader.
Alberto Contador isn't a bad descender and will hope he can use that to gain any sort of an advantage over the Brit.
Roman Kreuziger is probably the best of the bunch and could well try to link up with his team leader to force a move.
Bauke Mollema is an unknown variable to me when it comes to descending. We know he can climb and his time trialling is good but I'll admit to not knowing what he's like on the descents. I think he will have a go though, at the very least to ensure he retains his second place overall. Same goes for Nairo Quintana.
And for some that will become more and more central to their tactics as the days and kilometres roll by, defending their current position in the GC. Finishing on the podium in Paris is a massive thing and for the likes of Mollema, Contador, Kreuziger and Quintana it will eventually become more important to defend that position than attack Froome.
I do think that if the break gets caught then the winner will come from someone outside of the top 10 overall. The likes of Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde and Sylvain Chavanel will be favourites for the win simply due to their ability to go downhill very fast, their bike handling skills and time trialling ability.
Another man who can do that is the current green jersey holder (and most likely winner of that competition) Peter Sagan. He's already proven he can sprint, climb and pull wheelies halfway up mountains. expect his descending skills to be put on show here!
If Evans is not up to it then maybe BMC will finally let World Champion Philippe Gilbert off the leash. The Belgian had spoken to the press earlier this month about the fact he wasn't allowed to attack and had to work for his leader.
However if the breakaway does succeed, and under normal circumstances there should be no real reason for Sky to chase it, then all bets are of as to who will win. I do think Pierre Rolland will be in there as he will want the points on offer for the King of the Mountains competition. Vaconsoleil will also have a rider in there, and as both Juan-Antonio Flecha and Wout Poels have been very active so far, it wouldn't be a shock to see one of them in the break.
But whether they are at the front or following the break in, it is going to be the GC boys who will provide the entertainment.
And if you have never seen a cyclist go down a hill faster than a motorbike, then you may want to watch from behind a sofa!
Tuesday, 9 July 2013
Tour de France 2013 : Stage 11 Preview
WHEN Sir Bradley Wiggins won last year's
tour he owed a lot to Team Sky's dominance in the mountains.
However it was his performances in the Individual Time Trials that were arguably the main reason for his success. Wiggins took a total of 1.51 out of Chris Froome in last years two stages, over half of his final advantage.
Stage 11 sees the first of this year's tests against the clock and Froome will be hoping to emulate his team mate by putting major time gaps into his rivals.
The route is straight out of the minds of the French Tourist Board. Travelling 33km it heads from Avranches in Normandy to the second most visited tourist attraction in France, Mont-Saint-Michel.
It is an almost flat route and the biggest natural threat to the riders could be cross or headwinds.
Froome will go into it defending a 1.25 lead over Movistar's Alejandro Valverde but he will be expecting to stretch that advantage somewhat. Valverde is not the best time-triallist in the world and this course will not suit him.
Of the other GC contenders it will be interesting to see how Alberto Contador goes. He has won a Tour time-trial before in 2009 the past but admitted that his legs weren't the best over the weekend. He will have had two days to recover though so won't be too far off the pace but I do expect him to lose more time to Froome. That said he should still move up the standings.
Bauke Mollema is an interesting one. Currently third in the overall standings he isn't bad against the clock. In the recent Tour de Suisse he finished second overall after a great ride in the final ITT. He could well move ahead of Valverde after this stage.
The man who beat him in that time trial and to the Suisse title was Rui Costa. The Portuguese man is currently 10th, 2.45 down on Froome and 1.20 on Valverde. It is not inconceivable he could catch Valverde in the overall standings.
Roman Kreuziger has looked one of the strongest men at this race and could have been higher in the GC had he not followed team orders and helped Contador through the mountains. A former U19 World Champion at this event, he will be able to post a decent time, which could move him into a podium position.
Also don't count out the BMC duo of Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen either. Both lost time in the Pyrenees but both, if they have recovered enough, can set good times.
Of course the time-trial is not just about the overall positions. Their will be a battle for the stage win and the white jersey for best young rider.
It is currently on the shoulders of Nairo Quintana with the young Colombian holding a 1.23 lead over Michael Kwiatkowski. Behind these stand Romain Bardet at 5.07 and Andrew Talansky at 7.33. Thibault Pinot is next but he is over 29 minutes down.
Quintana can time-trial as can Kwiatkowski, although the young Pole just about has the advantage. It will mean he should close the gap and could herald a very interesting contest moving into the Alps. Both could feature in the top 10 here, definitely the top 20. Talansky is a good time trialler but has not looked on form so far this tour. He will need some effort to get close to the jersey.
For the stage win you would be hard pushed to look beyond Tony Martin. The Omega Pharma Quickstep man is the current World Champion at this discipline and the course will suit him. He suffered a big crash on stage one but has been quietly nursing his wounds for a week now and I still see him as the big favourite.
Outsiders for a Top 10 finish on the stage will be Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits and Maxine Monfort.
**********************************************************************************************
Time Trials
Individual Time Trials, or the Race of Truth as it is sometimes known, is where the big technological advances in cycling have been most keenly noticed.
Specialist machines and solid disk wheels were already in use when American Greg Lemond arrived at the Tour in 1989.
Wearing an aero helmet and with triathlon bars attached to his machine he managed to overturn a 50 second deficit to Laurent Fignon in the final stage, winning by just 8 seconds, the smallest winning margin in history.
Just five years later Chris Boardman arrived with his Lotus Carbon Fibre machine that had steered him to Olympic glory in Barcelona.
From then on advances have been made in every aspect, from the machine itself to the specialised skinsuits of the athletes. Sky for example have spent hours in the wind tunnel perfecting the perfect suit, looking at everything from the material to where the stitching should go.
Sky have even used the wind tunnel to help modify and improve Froome's position on the bike, anything to eke out a few more seconds.
But despite all these changes it still boils down to one thing. You against the clock. Speeds reached are incredibly fast, the average speeds for both of Wiggins victories in last years Tour was 48.4 kph and 50.0 kph.
Speeds will be high again, especially if the wind is behind the riders as forecast. Riders adopt the most aerodynamic position possible and will rarely be seen out of the saddle. The smoother the pedal stroke the quicker they go. Or so the theory has it!
Expect many changes in the overall standings today and even more advances in the next few years.
However it was his performances in the Individual Time Trials that were arguably the main reason for his success. Wiggins took a total of 1.51 out of Chris Froome in last years two stages, over half of his final advantage.
Stage 11 sees the first of this year's tests against the clock and Froome will be hoping to emulate his team mate by putting major time gaps into his rivals.
The route is straight out of the minds of the French Tourist Board. Travelling 33km it heads from Avranches in Normandy to the second most visited tourist attraction in France, Mont-Saint-Michel.
It is an almost flat route and the biggest natural threat to the riders could be cross or headwinds.
Froome will go into it defending a 1.25 lead over Movistar's Alejandro Valverde but he will be expecting to stretch that advantage somewhat. Valverde is not the best time-triallist in the world and this course will not suit him.
Of the other GC contenders it will be interesting to see how Alberto Contador goes. He has won a Tour time-trial before in 2009 the past but admitted that his legs weren't the best over the weekend. He will have had two days to recover though so won't be too far off the pace but I do expect him to lose more time to Froome. That said he should still move up the standings.
Bauke Mollema is an interesting one. Currently third in the overall standings he isn't bad against the clock. In the recent Tour de Suisse he finished second overall after a great ride in the final ITT. He could well move ahead of Valverde after this stage.
The man who beat him in that time trial and to the Suisse title was Rui Costa. The Portuguese man is currently 10th, 2.45 down on Froome and 1.20 on Valverde. It is not inconceivable he could catch Valverde in the overall standings.
Roman Kreuziger has looked one of the strongest men at this race and could have been higher in the GC had he not followed team orders and helped Contador through the mountains. A former U19 World Champion at this event, he will be able to post a decent time, which could move him into a podium position.
Also don't count out the BMC duo of Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen either. Both lost time in the Pyrenees but both, if they have recovered enough, can set good times.
Of course the time-trial is not just about the overall positions. Their will be a battle for the stage win and the white jersey for best young rider.
It is currently on the shoulders of Nairo Quintana with the young Colombian holding a 1.23 lead over Michael Kwiatkowski. Behind these stand Romain Bardet at 5.07 and Andrew Talansky at 7.33. Thibault Pinot is next but he is over 29 minutes down.
Quintana can time-trial as can Kwiatkowski, although the young Pole just about has the advantage. It will mean he should close the gap and could herald a very interesting contest moving into the Alps. Both could feature in the top 10 here, definitely the top 20. Talansky is a good time trialler but has not looked on form so far this tour. He will need some effort to get close to the jersey.
For the stage win you would be hard pushed to look beyond Tony Martin. The Omega Pharma Quickstep man is the current World Champion at this discipline and the course will suit him. He suffered a big crash on stage one but has been quietly nursing his wounds for a week now and I still see him as the big favourite.
Outsiders for a Top 10 finish on the stage will be Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits and Maxine Monfort.
**********************************************************************************************
Time Trials
Individual Time Trials, or the Race of Truth as it is sometimes known, is where the big technological advances in cycling have been most keenly noticed.
Specialist machines and solid disk wheels were already in use when American Greg Lemond arrived at the Tour in 1989.
Wearing an aero helmet and with triathlon bars attached to his machine he managed to overturn a 50 second deficit to Laurent Fignon in the final stage, winning by just 8 seconds, the smallest winning margin in history.
Just five years later Chris Boardman arrived with his Lotus Carbon Fibre machine that had steered him to Olympic glory in Barcelona.
From then on advances have been made in every aspect, from the machine itself to the specialised skinsuits of the athletes. Sky for example have spent hours in the wind tunnel perfecting the perfect suit, looking at everything from the material to where the stitching should go.
Sky have even used the wind tunnel to help modify and improve Froome's position on the bike, anything to eke out a few more seconds.
But despite all these changes it still boils down to one thing. You against the clock. Speeds reached are incredibly fast, the average speeds for both of Wiggins victories in last years Tour was 48.4 kph and 50.0 kph.
Speeds will be high again, especially if the wind is behind the riders as forecast. Riders adopt the most aerodynamic position possible and will rarely be seen out of the saddle. The smoother the pedal stroke the quicker they go. Or so the theory has it!
Expect many changes in the overall standings today and even more advances in the next few years.
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