CHRIS Froome gained huge amounts of time in the first of this year's Individual Time Trials. The second one however may not be as profitable for him.
At first glance they appear to be fairly similar. The stage into Mont-Saint-Michel was 33km long. Stage 17 takes the riders from Embrun to Chorges, which is a total of 32km. However that is where the similarity ends.
While the route to the Mont was flat this route includes not one but two Category 2 climbs.
Straight from the start hut the road goes up, climbing 6.4km up the Cote de Puy-Sanieres with an average gradient of 6%.
That is followed by a fairly technical descent before the road kicks up again over the Cote de Reallon. This is slightly longer at 6.9km and slightly steeper, with an average gradient of 6.3%.
It is then 12km downhill to the finish on a descent that is not as twisting as the first.
It is a route that will test the riders and tactics will have to be spot on. Do you go fast up the first climb? The second one? Do you climb steadily and then descend like a bat out of hell? What bike will you use? A time trial one or a standard road machine?
A lot of questions then to be asked and though it will alter the overall standings, it is unlikely to be the stage that finally answers the questions about the destination of the yellow jersey and podium spots.
Climbers who would usually lose time on a ITT stage will actually find themselves at the top of the standings here. Men like Nairo Quintana, Dan Martin would have normally lost 3 minutes to the likes of Froome and Tony Martin but not here.
Tony Martin himself may not be the favourite here. A great time trialler, these climbs may be too much for him. He still should produce a decent time though but I don't see him on the top step of the podium for the stage.
Having said all that Froome should still be the man to beat. He is excellent against the clock and is proving to be the strongest in the mountains. If he descends sensibly he will probably be the favourite.
But it is a really fascinating stage as there are a lot of men who could potentially win, or at least make the top 10.
Alberto Contador, Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger, Rui Costa and Micheal Kwiatkowski should all go well and consolidate their top 10 position overall.
Further down Joaquin Rodriguez, Quintana and Dan Martin shouldn't win the day but could put in very decent rides.
Outside of the big favourites look to Cadel Evans, Andrew Talansky and possibly Tejay Van Garderen.
For outsiders I like the look of Andrey Amador of Movistar. The Costa Rican can both climb and time trial. He has his focus on the Vuelta d'Espana but today could be a chance for him to see just how good his form is right now. Can definitely see him making the top 10 here.
Another outsider for the win would have been Thomas De Gendt of Vaconsoleil. He is currently 95th on GC, over one hour and 45 minutes behind Froome, but finished 3rd on the stage to Mont-Saint-Michel and finished on the podium in last year's Giro d'Italia after a fantastic ride on the Stelvio. He was in the break today but I would still not count him out.
It really is that difficult to call though. It should see Froome hold the majority of his advantage over the rest but the places below are definitely up for grabs.
But as we've seen so often during this 100th edition of Le Tour, expect anything!
Showing posts with label Michael Kwiatkowski. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Kwiatkowski. Show all posts
Tuesday, 16 July 2013
Wednesday, 10 July 2013
Tour de France 2013 : Stage 12 Preview
IT'S a day one man has been dreading
above all others.
Even Mark Cavendish looking at the double ascent of L'Alpe d'Huez is not quaking in fear as much.
The man? Eurosport's commentator Carlton Kirby!
Stage 12 travels 218km (or 135.5 miles) from Fougeres to Tours and bar the obligatory intermediate sprint, there is nothing on the profile. No climbs, no descents, nothing.
It means a long day behind the microphone as a break goes up the road and the sprinters teams take their time bringing them back. Expect as much waffle and time filling as it is possible to muster. And expect many scenic shots as the helicopter goes looking for Chateau's and vineyards!
Once the break has been caught the finish at least should bring some excitement. With about 2.5km to go the road swings through two 90 degree bends, first left and then right, as we cross the river.
Then with 700m we turn right through another 90 degrees and again with 400m to go.
It will mean any leadout train will have their rhythm severely disrupted and position for the last two corners will be paramount. Anyone with designs on the stage win will need to be in the one of the first five positions out of that last corner.
It will really raise the likelihood of a crash in the peloton as nerves will be high and sprint teams race to get their man into the best position possible for those final two corners.
The nullification somewhat of the sprint teams at the end means we could see other riders getting close to the now established names of potential sprint winners.
Roberto Ferrari has figured in the top 20 in a few of the sprint stages so far but without the success of the Giro d'Italia in 2011. Samuel Dumoulin is another who can't be totally ruled out. While he could never be classed as a top sprinter, the diminutive Frenchman has a habit of appearing through carnage and other peoples difficulties to grab good results. Could be an outsider for a top 3 place here.
And you just can't seem to keep Orica Green-Edge away from the spotlight. Matt Goss was 11th into Saint-Malo the other day. He should be able to go higher than that.
The likelihood is though that the winner will be from that elite sprint group. Kittel looks fast at the minute and both of his wins so far in this Tour have come without the aid of a sprint train. I have him down to pip the likes of Greipel, Cavendish, Sagan and Kristoff.
It will be a chaotic finish to what will be a fairly quiet day. Quiet that is except for the Eurosport commentary box!
******************************************************
Best Young Rider Classification (White Jersey)
Eddy Merckx famously won every jersey going in the 1969 Tour de France, his first appearance at the race.
He would have won this one too had it been in existence!
First awarded in 1975 the title has been given to the best rider on GC under the age of 25 since 1987. The jersey itself came fully into existence in 2000.
It has been won by some of the great in the sport, as well as some of the now disgraced, and has seen some of it's winners go on to swap white for yellow. The likes of Andy Schleck, Alberto Contador and Marco Pantani all won this competition prior to the big one.
And Schleck, Contador, Jan Ullrich and Laurent Fignon are the only four men to have won both in the same year.
It is basically a competition within a competition. It uses the same rules as defines the overall standings. Tejay Van Garderen won the white jersey last year while finishing 8th overall.
This year as I've mentioned previously, barring a crash or other such misfortune, the jersey will be a two horse race between Nairo Quintana and Michael Kwiatkowski.
Both have been touted as future winners of the Tour and for good reason. Both can time trial and both can climb although the Colombian excels more in the lumpier stuff while the Pole takes the plaudits against the clock.
With the Alps fast approaching it will be fascinating to see how they react. Both are in their first tour and the final week of any three week tour brings with it a whole new range of issues, as the riders cope with fatigue and a savage profile.
They have shown enough already to cement their reputation and potential. Don't be surprised if this jersey is just the start of many for them both.
Even Mark Cavendish looking at the double ascent of L'Alpe d'Huez is not quaking in fear as much.
The man? Eurosport's commentator Carlton Kirby!
Stage 12 travels 218km (or 135.5 miles) from Fougeres to Tours and bar the obligatory intermediate sprint, there is nothing on the profile. No climbs, no descents, nothing.
It means a long day behind the microphone as a break goes up the road and the sprinters teams take their time bringing them back. Expect as much waffle and time filling as it is possible to muster. And expect many scenic shots as the helicopter goes looking for Chateau's and vineyards!
Once the break has been caught the finish at least should bring some excitement. With about 2.5km to go the road swings through two 90 degree bends, first left and then right, as we cross the river.
Then with 700m we turn right through another 90 degrees and again with 400m to go.
It will mean any leadout train will have their rhythm severely disrupted and position for the last two corners will be paramount. Anyone with designs on the stage win will need to be in the one of the first five positions out of that last corner.
It will really raise the likelihood of a crash in the peloton as nerves will be high and sprint teams race to get their man into the best position possible for those final two corners.
The nullification somewhat of the sprint teams at the end means we could see other riders getting close to the now established names of potential sprint winners.
Roberto Ferrari has figured in the top 20 in a few of the sprint stages so far but without the success of the Giro d'Italia in 2011. Samuel Dumoulin is another who can't be totally ruled out. While he could never be classed as a top sprinter, the diminutive Frenchman has a habit of appearing through carnage and other peoples difficulties to grab good results. Could be an outsider for a top 3 place here.
And you just can't seem to keep Orica Green-Edge away from the spotlight. Matt Goss was 11th into Saint-Malo the other day. He should be able to go higher than that.
The likelihood is though that the winner will be from that elite sprint group. Kittel looks fast at the minute and both of his wins so far in this Tour have come without the aid of a sprint train. I have him down to pip the likes of Greipel, Cavendish, Sagan and Kristoff.
It will be a chaotic finish to what will be a fairly quiet day. Quiet that is except for the Eurosport commentary box!
******************************************************
Best Young Rider Classification (White Jersey)
Eddy Merckx famously won every jersey going in the 1969 Tour de France, his first appearance at the race.
He would have won this one too had it been in existence!
First awarded in 1975 the title has been given to the best rider on GC under the age of 25 since 1987. The jersey itself came fully into existence in 2000.
It has been won by some of the great in the sport, as well as some of the now disgraced, and has seen some of it's winners go on to swap white for yellow. The likes of Andy Schleck, Alberto Contador and Marco Pantani all won this competition prior to the big one.
And Schleck, Contador, Jan Ullrich and Laurent Fignon are the only four men to have won both in the same year.
It is basically a competition within a competition. It uses the same rules as defines the overall standings. Tejay Van Garderen won the white jersey last year while finishing 8th overall.
This year as I've mentioned previously, barring a crash or other such misfortune, the jersey will be a two horse race between Nairo Quintana and Michael Kwiatkowski.
Both have been touted as future winners of the Tour and for good reason. Both can time trial and both can climb although the Colombian excels more in the lumpier stuff while the Pole takes the plaudits against the clock.
With the Alps fast approaching it will be fascinating to see how they react. Both are in their first tour and the final week of any three week tour brings with it a whole new range of issues, as the riders cope with fatigue and a savage profile.
They have shown enough already to cement their reputation and potential. Don't be surprised if this jersey is just the start of many for them both.
Tuesday, 9 July 2013
Tour de France 2013 : Stage 11 Preview
WHEN Sir Bradley Wiggins won last year's
tour he owed a lot to Team Sky's dominance in the mountains.
However it was his performances in the Individual Time Trials that were arguably the main reason for his success. Wiggins took a total of 1.51 out of Chris Froome in last years two stages, over half of his final advantage.
Stage 11 sees the first of this year's tests against the clock and Froome will be hoping to emulate his team mate by putting major time gaps into his rivals.
The route is straight out of the minds of the French Tourist Board. Travelling 33km it heads from Avranches in Normandy to the second most visited tourist attraction in France, Mont-Saint-Michel.
It is an almost flat route and the biggest natural threat to the riders could be cross or headwinds.
Froome will go into it defending a 1.25 lead over Movistar's Alejandro Valverde but he will be expecting to stretch that advantage somewhat. Valverde is not the best time-triallist in the world and this course will not suit him.
Of the other GC contenders it will be interesting to see how Alberto Contador goes. He has won a Tour time-trial before in 2009 the past but admitted that his legs weren't the best over the weekend. He will have had two days to recover though so won't be too far off the pace but I do expect him to lose more time to Froome. That said he should still move up the standings.
Bauke Mollema is an interesting one. Currently third in the overall standings he isn't bad against the clock. In the recent Tour de Suisse he finished second overall after a great ride in the final ITT. He could well move ahead of Valverde after this stage.
The man who beat him in that time trial and to the Suisse title was Rui Costa. The Portuguese man is currently 10th, 2.45 down on Froome and 1.20 on Valverde. It is not inconceivable he could catch Valverde in the overall standings.
Roman Kreuziger has looked one of the strongest men at this race and could have been higher in the GC had he not followed team orders and helped Contador through the mountains. A former U19 World Champion at this event, he will be able to post a decent time, which could move him into a podium position.
Also don't count out the BMC duo of Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen either. Both lost time in the Pyrenees but both, if they have recovered enough, can set good times.
Of course the time-trial is not just about the overall positions. Their will be a battle for the stage win and the white jersey for best young rider.
It is currently on the shoulders of Nairo Quintana with the young Colombian holding a 1.23 lead over Michael Kwiatkowski. Behind these stand Romain Bardet at 5.07 and Andrew Talansky at 7.33. Thibault Pinot is next but he is over 29 minutes down.
Quintana can time-trial as can Kwiatkowski, although the young Pole just about has the advantage. It will mean he should close the gap and could herald a very interesting contest moving into the Alps. Both could feature in the top 10 here, definitely the top 20. Talansky is a good time trialler but has not looked on form so far this tour. He will need some effort to get close to the jersey.
For the stage win you would be hard pushed to look beyond Tony Martin. The Omega Pharma Quickstep man is the current World Champion at this discipline and the course will suit him. He suffered a big crash on stage one but has been quietly nursing his wounds for a week now and I still see him as the big favourite.
Outsiders for a Top 10 finish on the stage will be Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits and Maxine Monfort.
**********************************************************************************************
Time Trials
Individual Time Trials, or the Race of Truth as it is sometimes known, is where the big technological advances in cycling have been most keenly noticed.
Specialist machines and solid disk wheels were already in use when American Greg Lemond arrived at the Tour in 1989.
Wearing an aero helmet and with triathlon bars attached to his machine he managed to overturn a 50 second deficit to Laurent Fignon in the final stage, winning by just 8 seconds, the smallest winning margin in history.
Just five years later Chris Boardman arrived with his Lotus Carbon Fibre machine that had steered him to Olympic glory in Barcelona.
From then on advances have been made in every aspect, from the machine itself to the specialised skinsuits of the athletes. Sky for example have spent hours in the wind tunnel perfecting the perfect suit, looking at everything from the material to where the stitching should go.
Sky have even used the wind tunnel to help modify and improve Froome's position on the bike, anything to eke out a few more seconds.
But despite all these changes it still boils down to one thing. You against the clock. Speeds reached are incredibly fast, the average speeds for both of Wiggins victories in last years Tour was 48.4 kph and 50.0 kph.
Speeds will be high again, especially if the wind is behind the riders as forecast. Riders adopt the most aerodynamic position possible and will rarely be seen out of the saddle. The smoother the pedal stroke the quicker they go. Or so the theory has it!
Expect many changes in the overall standings today and even more advances in the next few years.
However it was his performances in the Individual Time Trials that were arguably the main reason for his success. Wiggins took a total of 1.51 out of Chris Froome in last years two stages, over half of his final advantage.
Stage 11 sees the first of this year's tests against the clock and Froome will be hoping to emulate his team mate by putting major time gaps into his rivals.
The route is straight out of the minds of the French Tourist Board. Travelling 33km it heads from Avranches in Normandy to the second most visited tourist attraction in France, Mont-Saint-Michel.
It is an almost flat route and the biggest natural threat to the riders could be cross or headwinds.
Froome will go into it defending a 1.25 lead over Movistar's Alejandro Valverde but he will be expecting to stretch that advantage somewhat. Valverde is not the best time-triallist in the world and this course will not suit him.
Of the other GC contenders it will be interesting to see how Alberto Contador goes. He has won a Tour time-trial before in 2009 the past but admitted that his legs weren't the best over the weekend. He will have had two days to recover though so won't be too far off the pace but I do expect him to lose more time to Froome. That said he should still move up the standings.
Bauke Mollema is an interesting one. Currently third in the overall standings he isn't bad against the clock. In the recent Tour de Suisse he finished second overall after a great ride in the final ITT. He could well move ahead of Valverde after this stage.
The man who beat him in that time trial and to the Suisse title was Rui Costa. The Portuguese man is currently 10th, 2.45 down on Froome and 1.20 on Valverde. It is not inconceivable he could catch Valverde in the overall standings.
Roman Kreuziger has looked one of the strongest men at this race and could have been higher in the GC had he not followed team orders and helped Contador through the mountains. A former U19 World Champion at this event, he will be able to post a decent time, which could move him into a podium position.
Also don't count out the BMC duo of Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen either. Both lost time in the Pyrenees but both, if they have recovered enough, can set good times.
Of course the time-trial is not just about the overall positions. Their will be a battle for the stage win and the white jersey for best young rider.
It is currently on the shoulders of Nairo Quintana with the young Colombian holding a 1.23 lead over Michael Kwiatkowski. Behind these stand Romain Bardet at 5.07 and Andrew Talansky at 7.33. Thibault Pinot is next but he is over 29 minutes down.
Quintana can time-trial as can Kwiatkowski, although the young Pole just about has the advantage. It will mean he should close the gap and could herald a very interesting contest moving into the Alps. Both could feature in the top 10 here, definitely the top 20. Talansky is a good time trialler but has not looked on form so far this tour. He will need some effort to get close to the jersey.
For the stage win you would be hard pushed to look beyond Tony Martin. The Omega Pharma Quickstep man is the current World Champion at this discipline and the course will suit him. He suffered a big crash on stage one but has been quietly nursing his wounds for a week now and I still see him as the big favourite.
Outsiders for a Top 10 finish on the stage will be Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits and Maxine Monfort.
**********************************************************************************************
Time Trials
Individual Time Trials, or the Race of Truth as it is sometimes known, is where the big technological advances in cycling have been most keenly noticed.
Specialist machines and solid disk wheels were already in use when American Greg Lemond arrived at the Tour in 1989.
Wearing an aero helmet and with triathlon bars attached to his machine he managed to overturn a 50 second deficit to Laurent Fignon in the final stage, winning by just 8 seconds, the smallest winning margin in history.
Just five years later Chris Boardman arrived with his Lotus Carbon Fibre machine that had steered him to Olympic glory in Barcelona.
From then on advances have been made in every aspect, from the machine itself to the specialised skinsuits of the athletes. Sky for example have spent hours in the wind tunnel perfecting the perfect suit, looking at everything from the material to where the stitching should go.
Sky have even used the wind tunnel to help modify and improve Froome's position on the bike, anything to eke out a few more seconds.
But despite all these changes it still boils down to one thing. You against the clock. Speeds reached are incredibly fast, the average speeds for both of Wiggins victories in last years Tour was 48.4 kph and 50.0 kph.
Speeds will be high again, especially if the wind is behind the riders as forecast. Riders adopt the most aerodynamic position possible and will rarely be seen out of the saddle. The smoother the pedal stroke the quicker they go. Or so the theory has it!
Expect many changes in the overall standings today and even more advances in the next few years.
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