" I DON'T expect him to lose the leaders jersey however".
So spoke this 'oracle' about today's stage. Chris Horner actually produced a decent ride yet Vincenzo Nibali produced a even better one.
Nico Roche was also impressive but probably the star of the stage was the diminutive Domenico Pozzovivo who produced an absolutely sensational and still somewhat unbelievable ride to finish third on the stage.
It means the time gaps covering the top 10 is now 3.56. However the top four are separated by just 46 seconds.
But this time I'm going to say it. The leaders jersey should not change hands tomorrow. And that's because of one thing. One big, imposing, colossal thing.
The Pyrenees.
Saturday sees the first foray into the famous mountain chain and with that in mind the organisers, for once, have been relatively kind to the peloton.
Stage 12 is a straight run to the Mediterranean. We start in inland at Maella before travelling 164.2km to Tarragona, just 100km south of Barcelona, where we head tomorrow.
There is just one climb along the route, the 3rd Cat Alto del Collet, a 7.5km climb which rises 275m at an average gradient of 3.6%.
It's summit is still 73.7km from the finish and with nothing between it and there, other than two sprint points, it should mean another bunch sprint and a day off for the GC riders, if such things actually exist in this Vuelta.
Because the route drops towards the sea it should mean a quick stage and the opening hour could be interesting as the 'right' break tries to get away.
I've predicted bunch sprints before only to see someone jump clear and deny them their day.
The run in does have a couple of tricky corners. With 1.5km to go there is a sweeping left hand hairpin followed by a tight left 90 degree corner just under the flamme rouge.
And with around 300m to go there is a roundabout which while not a tight bend will still cause some problems.
It's going to be require someone to be a little bit brave as they are going to have to be towards the front from the last 2km at least.
Michael Matthews has been the quickest around and with some sprinters having already gone home, he will go into this stage as favourite.
Again the likes of Lampre's Maximiliano Richeze and Omega-Pharma-Quicksteps Gianni Meersman should make top 10 without too much problems.
Also look out for the likes of Geoffrey Soupe, Tyler Farrar and Ramon Sinkledam from Argos-Shimano.
However I'm going to go for Edvald Boassen-Hagen.
Now I know that may seem like a strange choice. He hasn't been having an impressive tour so far considering he left the Tour de France early due to an injury.
He hasn't achieved a top 5 in a sprint yet either and today's TT wasn't up to his usual high standard. But I do think that on a day like tomorrow he could produce a strong enough effort to snatch a good result.
But then I was wrong today!
Showing posts with label Michael Matthews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Matthews. Show all posts
Wednesday, 4 September 2013
Thursday, 29 August 2013
Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 7 Preview
ONE thing we haven't seen a lot of in this Vuelta has been crashes.
Now don't get me wrong. Of course that's a good thing! But it is very rare for a grand tour to be without pile-ups and for pictures of various riders sporting 'road rash' to be seen.
This stage could change that.
The route itself is another one which should end up in a cavalry charge from the bunch and the sprinters taking the honours.
It is 205.9km long and heads to Andalusia, travelling from Almendralejo to Mairena del Aljarafe, a small town just outside of Seville.
Again there is no categorised climbs along the route and nothing that should prevent the peloton arriving into the last 5km together.
But it is that last 5km which will be crucial.
Just under the 5km to go banner there is a right hand bend followed by a full 360 around a roundabout.
A number of roundabouts will follow before a 90 degree left hand turn with 2.5km to go.
Another 90 degree turn happens with 1.5km to go with a final sweeping bend with 800m to go.
Positioning will be vital, not just for the sprinters teams but also for the overall GC riders who will want to stay out of trouble.
This will create plenty of nerves and I think it will be very surprising if everyone gets through unscathed.
But if fate is kind then we will be in for another sprint and the last one for a week.
Maximiliano Richeze took second again for the second successive stage and has been impressive so far in this tour. Can he finally go one better tomorrow?
Michael Matthews has been the quickest sprinter this week but his chaotic lead-out could only bring him sixth today. Expect better tomorrow.
Tyler Farrar did well today and finished fourth. His lead-out looked a little bit more organised and he has the speed so he could end up top five again at least.
Gianni Meersman ended eighth today but considering team tactics that may not be a bad result. Another who should expect better tomorrow and at least a top 10 finish.
I did speculate that a break may make it all the way today, although I didn't expect such a move and such an effort by Tony Martin. With the mountains appearing again on Saturday the favourites will not want to over exert themselves so I don't imagine an escape succeeding today.
But then successes tomorrow may just be returning in one piece.
Now don't get me wrong. Of course that's a good thing! But it is very rare for a grand tour to be without pile-ups and for pictures of various riders sporting 'road rash' to be seen.
This stage could change that.
The route itself is another one which should end up in a cavalry charge from the bunch and the sprinters taking the honours.
It is 205.9km long and heads to Andalusia, travelling from Almendralejo to Mairena del Aljarafe, a small town just outside of Seville.
Again there is no categorised climbs along the route and nothing that should prevent the peloton arriving into the last 5km together.
But it is that last 5km which will be crucial.
Just under the 5km to go banner there is a right hand bend followed by a full 360 around a roundabout.
A number of roundabouts will follow before a 90 degree left hand turn with 2.5km to go.
Another 90 degree turn happens with 1.5km to go with a final sweeping bend with 800m to go.
Positioning will be vital, not just for the sprinters teams but also for the overall GC riders who will want to stay out of trouble.
This will create plenty of nerves and I think it will be very surprising if everyone gets through unscathed.
But if fate is kind then we will be in for another sprint and the last one for a week.
Maximiliano Richeze took second again for the second successive stage and has been impressive so far in this tour. Can he finally go one better tomorrow?
Michael Matthews has been the quickest sprinter this week but his chaotic lead-out could only bring him sixth today. Expect better tomorrow.
Tyler Farrar did well today and finished fourth. His lead-out looked a little bit more organised and he has the speed so he could end up top five again at least.
Gianni Meersman ended eighth today but considering team tactics that may not be a bad result. Another who should expect better tomorrow and at least a top 10 finish.
I did speculate that a break may make it all the way today, although I didn't expect such a move and such an effort by Tony Martin. With the mountains appearing again on Saturday the favourites will not want to over exert themselves so I don't imagine an escape succeeding today.
But then successes tomorrow may just be returning in one piece.
Wednesday, 28 August 2013
Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 6 Preview
AFTER a very tough opening to this years Vuelta a Espana, the overall contenders can definitely have a quiet day today.
Stage six will follow the usual fare for an opening week grand tour stage.
It's 175km long and takes the riders along the western edge of Spain from Guijuelo to Caceres.
No categorised climbs either to tax the field so expect the usual structure of breakaway followed by chase and catch as the sprinters look to take the honours.
The finish is slightly uphill so if it does come down to a bunch sprint it will be one more suited for the stronger sprinter.
It is also a tight and twisty finish with a number of 90 degree corners and roundabouts to deal with.
The final 90 degree bend comes with about 600m to go so it will be important to be in a good position coming out of it. Again being in the first half dozen places or so will be vital.
Favourites are pretty much the same names as mentioned yesterday.
Omega-Pharma-Quickstep will look to Gianni Meersman while others will be Tyler Farrar, Anthony Roux, Nikias Arndt and Edvald Boassen-Hagen.
Today's winner though probably tops the list. Michael Matthews has looked the fastest in the peloton so far and all things being equal should take another win tomorrow.
However there is the possibility that a break may make it all the way. Astana just have to keep the break in check, it will be up to the sprinters teams to get organised and finish the job off.
OPQS have experience of leading a charging peloton and if they feel Gianni Meersman has a chance they will be able to bring things back together.
But if they think it is a forlorn task then responsibility will fall elsewhere and there doesn't seem to be many who will want to take up the mantle. Garmin-Sharp maybe but that will depend on the legs of Farrar.
Sky have the firepower but will they want to save some legs for the big mountain stages?
If it does come back together though and you want an outsider then look to Maximiliano Richeze of Lampre. The Argentinian took second place today and may be able to do enough to upset the favourites.
Stage six will follow the usual fare for an opening week grand tour stage.
It's 175km long and takes the riders along the western edge of Spain from Guijuelo to Caceres.
No categorised climbs either to tax the field so expect the usual structure of breakaway followed by chase and catch as the sprinters look to take the honours.
The finish is slightly uphill so if it does come down to a bunch sprint it will be one more suited for the stronger sprinter.
It is also a tight and twisty finish with a number of 90 degree corners and roundabouts to deal with.
The final 90 degree bend comes with about 600m to go so it will be important to be in a good position coming out of it. Again being in the first half dozen places or so will be vital.
Favourites are pretty much the same names as mentioned yesterday.
Omega-Pharma-Quickstep will look to Gianni Meersman while others will be Tyler Farrar, Anthony Roux, Nikias Arndt and Edvald Boassen-Hagen.
Today's winner though probably tops the list. Michael Matthews has looked the fastest in the peloton so far and all things being equal should take another win tomorrow.
However there is the possibility that a break may make it all the way. Astana just have to keep the break in check, it will be up to the sprinters teams to get organised and finish the job off.
OPQS have experience of leading a charging peloton and if they feel Gianni Meersman has a chance they will be able to bring things back together.
But if they think it is a forlorn task then responsibility will fall elsewhere and there doesn't seem to be many who will want to take up the mantle. Garmin-Sharp maybe but that will depend on the legs of Farrar.
Sky have the firepower but will they want to save some legs for the big mountain stages?
If it does come back together though and you want an outsider then look to Maximiliano Richeze of Lampre. The Argentinian took second place today and may be able to do enough to upset the favourites.
Tuesday, 27 August 2013
Vuelta a Espana 2013: Stage 5 Preview
FINALLY!
After four very difficult opening days the day that all sprinters have wanted has finally arrived.
Usually the start of a grand tour is recognisable from the number of flat, sprinters stages.
This year's Tour of Spain has been different. The uphill finishes have meant the pure sprinters have had to disappear into the safety of the autobus while they waited for their time to shine.
Tomorrow should see them spread their wings and fly.
I say should as although the race book says it is a flat stage, it isn't exactly pan flat.
From the start in the beautifully named town of Sober the route races 174.3km to the Lago de Sanabria. Along the way the route crosses two Cat 3 climbs, topping out 1,030m higher than the start town before finishing 720m above Sober.
The climbs of Alto de Cavela and Alto de Padornello may see one or two drop of the back but with 31km to go from the final summit to the finish line, they shouldn't be enough to destroy the chances of the quick men.
This Vuelta does not have the likes of Mark Cavendish or Marcel Kittel in the peloton. So the victory on this stage should go to one of the lesser lights.
My favourite yesterday was Omega-Pharma-Quickstep's Gianni Meersman. He ended up finishing fourth and despite his quickness he isn't fast enough to pip the real big sprinters. If the big boys don't make it over the climbs however Meersman could be the man. Whatever happens expect a top 10 finish.
The Belgian was beaten across the line by Michael Matthews of Orica-Greenedge today and the Aussie is another who should be guaranteed a top 10 finish tomorrow. He will definitely be able to get over the climbs and his 'victory' over Meersman will give him confident.
The real quick men in this tour are the likes of Garmin-Sharp's Tyler Farrar and FDJ's Geoffrey Soupe. Both have the ability to be there at the finish but neither have shown a lot of form recently.
There are two outsiders for the stage in my eyes.
The first is Vanconsoleil's Barry Markus. All of the Dutch squad are looking for rides next year as the sponsor is pulling out of cycling. Markus is one they could benefit from both the lack of the real quick men and that desire to do well.
The second 'outsider' isn't one that would normally fall into the category.
Sky's Edvald Boassen Hagen crashed out of the this year's Tour and is using this race as a reintroduction to the pro peloton. His form is therefore a subject for debate. Even before the crash he wasn't in the best of shape and results haven't gone his way.
However a sixth place today may indicate a return to better fortune so do not write him off.
One thing that shouldn't happen today is a change in the race leader.
But I said that today and a small split in the front group meant Chris Horner's tenure in red was short-lived. Vincnezo Nibali is now back in the leader's jersey and all things considered, he should not let it go for a little while.
After four very difficult opening days the day that all sprinters have wanted has finally arrived.
Usually the start of a grand tour is recognisable from the number of flat, sprinters stages.
This year's Tour of Spain has been different. The uphill finishes have meant the pure sprinters have had to disappear into the safety of the autobus while they waited for their time to shine.
Tomorrow should see them spread their wings and fly.
I say should as although the race book says it is a flat stage, it isn't exactly pan flat.
From the start in the beautifully named town of Sober the route races 174.3km to the Lago de Sanabria. Along the way the route crosses two Cat 3 climbs, topping out 1,030m higher than the start town before finishing 720m above Sober.
The climbs of Alto de Cavela and Alto de Padornello may see one or two drop of the back but with 31km to go from the final summit to the finish line, they shouldn't be enough to destroy the chances of the quick men.
This Vuelta does not have the likes of Mark Cavendish or Marcel Kittel in the peloton. So the victory on this stage should go to one of the lesser lights.
My favourite yesterday was Omega-Pharma-Quickstep's Gianni Meersman. He ended up finishing fourth and despite his quickness he isn't fast enough to pip the real big sprinters. If the big boys don't make it over the climbs however Meersman could be the man. Whatever happens expect a top 10 finish.
The Belgian was beaten across the line by Michael Matthews of Orica-Greenedge today and the Aussie is another who should be guaranteed a top 10 finish tomorrow. He will definitely be able to get over the climbs and his 'victory' over Meersman will give him confident.
The real quick men in this tour are the likes of Garmin-Sharp's Tyler Farrar and FDJ's Geoffrey Soupe. Both have the ability to be there at the finish but neither have shown a lot of form recently.
There are two outsiders for the stage in my eyes.
The first is Vanconsoleil's Barry Markus. All of the Dutch squad are looking for rides next year as the sponsor is pulling out of cycling. Markus is one they could benefit from both the lack of the real quick men and that desire to do well.
The second 'outsider' isn't one that would normally fall into the category.
Sky's Edvald Boassen Hagen crashed out of the this year's Tour and is using this race as a reintroduction to the pro peloton. His form is therefore a subject for debate. Even before the crash he wasn't in the best of shape and results haven't gone his way.
However a sixth place today may indicate a return to better fortune so do not write him off.
One thing that shouldn't happen today is a change in the race leader.
But I said that today and a small split in the front group meant Chris Horner's tenure in red was short-lived. Vincnezo Nibali is now back in the leader's jersey and all things considered, he should not let it go for a little while.
Monday, 26 August 2013
Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 4 Preview
AFTER three tough days the organisers of this years Vuelta seem to have gone easy with stage four. In the roadbook it has this stage classified as flat.
But as we know from experience 'on paper' doesn't always match reality.
The stage marks the last day in Galicia and starting from the town of Lalin it will travel 189km to Finisterra. It's name comes from the Latin 'finis terrae' meaning end of the world. And that gives you a clue as to the locale of the finish line.
Sitting on top a rocky outcrop sticking out into the Atlantic, the final 2.5km will see the riders climb almost 100m up another narrow road.
There should be a fairly reduced peloton even by the bottom of the climb as a third category climb just 36km from the end should send a few riders out the back door.
As far as the stage win goes though it will be those last few kilometres which will de the key.
Speeds will be high on the run in and as the course hugs the coast, any crosswind could split the field.
For me this has Gianni Meersman written all over it. He can get over the lumpy stuff and has the speed to vanquish most of the others. The big question is whether OPQS can deliver him into a good position.
The stage itself is also not enough to challenge the main contenders and won't result in big time gaps.
However with the time bonuses that are available in this years tour it is possible the red jersey may change hands again.
Chris Horner took the jersey from Vincenzo Nibali following a well timed attack today and those extra seconds on offer over the line.
Bonus seconds are available for those crossing in the top three places. With 10 seconds on offer to the winner the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Joaquin Rodriguez could see this as the last chance until the weekend to reduce the deficit to Nibali, who despite losing the jersey today remains the de facto leader of this Tour.
Movistar have been the biggest aggressors in keeping the pace high in the peloton but RadioShack should help in that respect tomorrow.
For the outsiders look towards Argos-Shimano's Micheal Matthews or Simon Gerrans. Neither have been in great form but this finish may be ideal for them.
And if RadioShack don't have to put too much into any chase of the breakaway there is a chance Ben Hermans may be up there,
Final outsider is Belkin's Luis Leon Sanchez. After a difficult season he finished 17th yesterday and he will like the look of this finish.
It's warming up in Spain and I don't just mean the temperatures!
But as we know from experience 'on paper' doesn't always match reality.
The stage marks the last day in Galicia and starting from the town of Lalin it will travel 189km to Finisterra. It's name comes from the Latin 'finis terrae' meaning end of the world. And that gives you a clue as to the locale of the finish line.
Sitting on top a rocky outcrop sticking out into the Atlantic, the final 2.5km will see the riders climb almost 100m up another narrow road.
There should be a fairly reduced peloton even by the bottom of the climb as a third category climb just 36km from the end should send a few riders out the back door.
As far as the stage win goes though it will be those last few kilometres which will de the key.
Speeds will be high on the run in and as the course hugs the coast, any crosswind could split the field.
For me this has Gianni Meersman written all over it. He can get over the lumpy stuff and has the speed to vanquish most of the others. The big question is whether OPQS can deliver him into a good position.
The stage itself is also not enough to challenge the main contenders and won't result in big time gaps.
However with the time bonuses that are available in this years tour it is possible the red jersey may change hands again.
Chris Horner took the jersey from Vincenzo Nibali following a well timed attack today and those extra seconds on offer over the line.
Bonus seconds are available for those crossing in the top three places. With 10 seconds on offer to the winner the likes of Alejandro Valverde and Joaquin Rodriguez could see this as the last chance until the weekend to reduce the deficit to Nibali, who despite losing the jersey today remains the de facto leader of this Tour.
Movistar have been the biggest aggressors in keeping the pace high in the peloton but RadioShack should help in that respect tomorrow.
For the outsiders look towards Argos-Shimano's Micheal Matthews or Simon Gerrans. Neither have been in great form but this finish may be ideal for them.
And if RadioShack don't have to put too much into any chase of the breakaway there is a chance Ben Hermans may be up there,
Final outsider is Belkin's Luis Leon Sanchez. After a difficult season he finished 17th yesterday and he will like the look of this finish.
It's warming up in Spain and I don't just mean the temperatures!
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