Vuelta a Espana 2013 : Stage 12 Preview

" I DON'T expect him to lose the leaders jersey however".

So spoke this 'oracle' about today's stage. Chris Horner actually produced a decent ride yet Vincenzo Nibali produced a even better one.

Nico Roche was also impressive but probably the star of the stage was the diminutive Domenico Pozzovivo who produced an absolutely sensational and still somewhat unbelievable ride to finish third on the stage.

It means the time gaps covering the top 10 is now 3.56. However the top four are separated by just 46 seconds.

But this time I'm going to say it. The leaders jersey should not change hands tomorrow. And that's because of one thing. One big, imposing, colossal thing. 

The Pyrenees.

Saturday sees the first foray into the famous mountain chain and with that in mind the organisers, for once, have been relatively kind to the peloton.

Stage 12 is a straight run to the Mediterranean. We start in inland at Maella before travelling 164.2km to Tarragona, just 100km south of Barcelona, where we head tomorrow.

There is just one climb along the route, the 3rd Cat Alto del Collet, a 7.5km climb which rises 275m at an average gradient of 3.6%.

It's summit is still 73.7km from the finish and with nothing between it and there, other than two sprint points, it should mean another bunch sprint and a day off for the GC riders, if such things actually exist in this Vuelta.

Because the route drops towards the sea it should mean a quick stage and the opening hour could be interesting as the 'right' break tries to get away.

I've predicted bunch sprints before only to see someone jump clear and deny them their day.

The run in does have a couple of tricky corners. With 1.5km to go there is a sweeping left hand hairpin followed by a tight left 90 degree corner just under the flamme rouge.

And with around 300m to go there is a roundabout which while not a tight bend will still cause some problems.

It's going to be require someone to be a little bit brave as they are going to have to be towards the front from the last 2km at least.

Michael Matthews has been the quickest around and with some sprinters having already gone home, he will go into this stage as favourite.

Again the likes of Lampre's Maximiliano Richeze and Omega-Pharma-Quicksteps Gianni Meersman should make top 10 without too much problems.

Also look out for the likes of Geoffrey Soupe, Tyler Farrar and Ramon Sinkledam from Argos-Shimano.

However I'm going to go for Edvald Boassen-Hagen.

Now I know that may seem like a strange choice. He hasn't been having an impressive tour so far considering he left the Tour de France early due to an injury.

He hasn't achieved a top 5 in a sprint yet either and today's TT wasn't up to his usual high standard. But I do think that on a day like tomorrow he could produce a strong enough effort to snatch a good result.

But then I was wrong today!

Vuelta a Espana 2013: Stage 5 Preview

FINALLY!

After four very difficult opening days the day that all sprinters have wanted has finally arrived.

Usually the start of a grand tour is recognisable from the number of flat, sprinters stages.

This year's Tour of Spain has been different. The uphill finishes have meant the pure sprinters have had to disappear into the safety of the autobus while they waited for their time to shine.

Tomorrow should see them spread their wings and fly.

I say should as although the race book says it is a flat stage, it isn't exactly pan flat.

From the start in the beautifully named town of Sober the route races 174.3km to the Lago de Sanabria. Along the way the route crosses two Cat 3 climbs, topping out 1,030m higher than the start town before finishing 720m above Sober.

The climbs of Alto de Cavela and Alto de Padornello may see one or two drop of the back but with 31km to go from the final summit to the finish line, they shouldn't be enough to destroy the chances of the quick men.

This Vuelta does not have the likes of Mark Cavendish or Marcel Kittel in the peloton. So the victory on this stage should go to one of the lesser lights.

My favourite yesterday was Omega-Pharma-Quickstep's Gianni Meersman. He ended up finishing fourth and despite his quickness he isn't fast enough to pip the real big sprinters. If the big boys don't make it over the climbs however Meersman could be the man. Whatever happens expect a top 10 finish.

The Belgian was beaten across the line by Michael Matthews of Orica-Greenedge today and the Aussie is another who should be guaranteed a top 10 finish tomorrow. He will definitely be able to get over the climbs and his 'victory' over Meersman will give him confident.

The real quick men in this tour are the likes of Garmin-Sharp's Tyler Farrar and FDJ's Geoffrey Soupe. Both have the ability to be there at the finish but neither have shown a lot of form recently.

There are two outsiders for the stage in my eyes.

The first is Vanconsoleil's Barry Markus. All of the Dutch squad are looking for rides next year as the sponsor is pulling out of cycling. Markus is one they could benefit from both the lack of the real quick men and that desire to do well.

The second 'outsider' isn't one that would normally fall into the category.

Sky's Edvald Boassen Hagen crashed out of the this year's Tour and is using this race as a reintroduction to the pro peloton. His form is therefore a subject for debate. Even before the crash he wasn't in the best of shape and results haven't gone his way.

However a sixth place today may indicate a return to better fortune so do not write him off.

One thing that shouldn't happen today is a change in the race leader.

But I said that today and a small split in the front group meant Chris Horner's tenure in red was short-lived. Vincnezo Nibali is now back in the leader's jersey and all things considered, he should not let it go for a little while.