Tour de France 2013 : Stage 21 Preview

AFTER three long and tortuous weeks around France, the Tour is coming to an end in style, with the now infamous finish on the Champs-Elysees in Paris.

But while the glory of that final stage win is still up for grabs, for those riders who have chasing the general classification, the tour is over. And that means that for the second year running 'God Save the Queen' will be ringing out over the Paris skyline as tour celebrates another British win.

Chris Froome has proven to be the strongest rider, despite some serious challenges over the last couple of days. Victory at Ax-3-Domaines and Mont Ventoux proved he could handle himself in the mountains and his performances in the Individual Time Trials, where he finished 2nd and 1st showed his all round ability. 

He still has to finish of course but the final stage is for the majority of the field, and not just for Froome, a celebratory ride through the streets of the capital. Expect the almost obligatory victorious team shot as well as glasses of champagne being quaffed!

The race always finishes along the Champs-Elysees, only the starting point changes. This year for the 100th edition we are staring at the Palace of Versailles. The only changes for the centennial race are that the race is going to be run in the evening to accommodate the planned fireworks display after the finish and instead of turning in front of the Arc de Triomphe, we are actually going around it for the first time.

While it is a celebration for most, there are some for whom this stage means a huge amount. We've not spoken about them for over a week now but they're back. The sprinters!
And one in particular will be chomping at the bit.

For the last four years there has only been one man with his arms in the air at the end of this stage and he will be keen to extend that marvellous winning streak to five.
 
Mark Cavendish.

The Manx Missile has been unstoppable in recent years as he has won with aplomb. In 2010 his winning margin was so much that his leadout man, Mark Renshaw finished second. Last year it was the yellow jersey himself, Sir Bradley Wiggins, that led him through the Place de la Concorde and onto victory.
 
However this could be the year where it ends.

He's not been as prolific as normal in this tour. Marcel Kittel, who is arguably the fastest man in the peloton at the moment, and Andre Greipel have both got the better of him and in Stage 12 Kittel actually came around him in the last 250m to win, something that has never happened before in the Tour de France.

Speeds are always high around here, and I mean incredibly high,  which means sprinters teams need to be strong and fast to get their man to the front of affairs. Argos-Shimano for Kittel and Lotto-Belisol for Greipel are probably the strongest leadout trains in the bunch. Cav's team, Omega-Pharma-Quickstep, are good, any team with Tony Martin will never be shy of a few Watts and kph! But they have lacked the cohesion at times to mount a strong challenge.

And even when they did get it almost spot on like into Tours, Cavendish hasn't had the speed.

But one thing that won't be missing is the desire. He knows what it takes to win around here and will be gunning for this. Will it be enough to defeat Kittel and Greipel? Time will tell but favourites for the win will definitely be these three.

It would be wrong to mention the King of the sprint stages and not mention the Green Jersey. Peter Sagan has taken this title for the second successive year, quite simply because of his consistency. He would love to take the win here but I think he will have to settle for top 5.

For an outsider look towards Alexander Kristoff. The big Norwegian has been due a big result since finishing second on the opening stage. He is a powerful sprinter which you need to be here, it's 400m from the corner on the Place de la Concorde to the line, so if you can hold your speed over a long period in time, you stand a chance.

It's been a fabulous tour, it deserves a fabulous finish. And under the twilight of Paris, it will get it!

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As this is the last preview piece for the Tour I just wanted to take this opportunity to say a big thank you to everybody who has read this and for all the very nice comments.

I hope you have enjoyed reading it as much as I have enjoyed writing it. Cycling is a wonderful sport, from the colour and scenery, to the drama of the racing and the respect of these supreme athletes. Hopefully these blogs have helped with your enjoyment.

The Tour de France isn't the only race however so I'll be back in August with a daily preview of the last Grand Tour of the year, the Vuelta a'Espana. For those who have never seen it it's another 3 week race but with a lot more mountains! Always exciting and full of surprises.

Hope to see you then!

Cheers

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 13 Preview

IT'S another so called transitional stage for the peloton as they face 173km from Tours to Saint-Amand-Montrond.

It should mean another bunch sprint, in fact scratch that. It WILL mean another bunch sprint.

Yes a breakaway will go but the sprinters teams will not want an opportunity to slip by so they will be given a short gap and then reeled in before the finish.

There is only categorised climb, the Cat 4 Cote de Crotz, which comes 96km from the end and will not cause any concern to the main favourites.

What will be of concern is the finish, which again has some serious obstacles inside the last km.

First there's a 90 degree left hand turn with around 900km to go. The road then swings right through another 90 degree turn before the third and final sweeping left hand curve with around 450m to go.

The crash in stage 12 will do nothing to calm the nerves in the peloton as GC guys and sprinters alike try to stay at the front of the group.

Whoever manages to do this will then hope to be around that final corner in the first half dozen spots in order to go for the stage win.

Mark Cavendish had a perfect lead out today but quite surprisingly Marcel Kittel proved to be the fastest man.

It is not the first time this tour that the German has got the better of the British Champion and there is bound to be frustration for the Manxman.

I have picked Cav for a few stages simply because he is (was?) the fastest man on two wheels. I do believe he will come good but at the minute Kittel is on top form. It's hard to go against the German again.

It won't be a two horse race though. Andre Greipel was caught up behind the crash and although he got through unscathed, he was out of the final fight. He is the German champion and will not be happy at the spotlight of his home country moving to the young pretender. Expect him to go fast and hard for the win.

The others will all be there again. Peter Sagan was third today with Alexander Kristoff fourth.

Daryl Impey got involved in the sprint for Orica GreenEdge and others who are proving to be good bets for a top 10 are Roberto Ferrari, Jose Joaquin Rojas and Juan Jose Lobato.

The GC guys will hope for a easy and calm finish. Ian Stannard managed to guide Chris Froome through the mayhem and will hope to do so again. Saturday and definitely Sunday will be firmly in their minds and they won't want any problems going into it.

But going back to the stage win, I would say it'll end up being a Germany - England confrontation. And as with our footballing sides, the favourite is probably a German!

And that's without penalties!

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 12 Preview

IT'S a day one man has been dreading above all others.

Even Mark Cavendish looking at the double ascent of L'Alpe d'Huez is not quaking in fear as much.

The man? Eurosport's commentator Carlton Kirby!

Stage 12 travels 218km (or 135.5 miles) from Fougeres to Tours and bar the obligatory intermediate sprint, there is nothing on the profile. No climbs, no descents, nothing.

It means a long day behind the microphone as a break goes up the road and the sprinters teams take their time bringing them back. Expect as much waffle and time filling as it is possible to muster. And expect many scenic shots as the helicopter goes looking for Chateau's and vineyards!

Once the break has been caught the finish at least should bring some excitement. With about 2.5km to go the road swings through two 90 degree bends, first left and then right, as we cross the river.

Then with 700m we turn right through another 90 degrees and again with 400m to go.

It will mean any leadout train will have their rhythm severely disrupted and position for the last two corners will be paramount. Anyone with designs on the stage win will need to be in the one of the first five positions out of that last corner.

It will really raise the likelihood of a crash in the peloton as nerves will be high and sprint teams race to get their man into the best position possible for those final two corners.

The nullification somewhat of the sprint teams at the end means we could see other riders getting close to the now established names of potential sprint winners.

Roberto Ferrari has figured in the top 20 in a few of the sprint stages so far but without the success of the Giro d'Italia in 2011. Samuel Dumoulin is another who can't be totally ruled out. While he could never be classed as a top sprinter, the diminutive Frenchman has a habit of appearing through carnage and other peoples difficulties to grab good results. Could be an outsider for a top 3 place here.

And you just can't seem to keep Orica Green-Edge away from the spotlight. Matt Goss was 11th into Saint-Malo the other day. He should be able to go higher than that.

The likelihood is though that the winner will be from that elite sprint group. Kittel looks fast at the minute and both of his wins so far in this Tour have come without the aid of a sprint train. I have him down to pip the likes of Greipel, Cavendish, Sagan and Kristoff.

It will be a chaotic finish to what will be a fairly quiet day. Quiet that is except for the Eurosport commentary box!

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Best Young Rider Classification (White Jersey)

Eddy Merckx famously won every jersey going in the 1969 Tour de France, his first appearance at the race.

He would have won this one too had it been in existence!

First awarded in 1975 the title has been given to the best rider on GC under the age of 25 since 1987. The jersey itself came fully into existence in 2000.

It has been won by some of the great in the sport, as well as some of the now disgraced, and has seen some of it's winners go on to swap white for yellow. The likes of Andy Schleck, Alberto Contador and Marco Pantani all won this competition prior to the big one.

And Schleck, Contador, Jan Ullrich and Laurent Fignon are the only four men to have won both in the same year.

It is basically a competition within a competition. It uses the same rules as defines the overall standings. Tejay Van Garderen won the white jersey last year while finishing 8th overall.

This year as I've mentioned previously, barring a crash or other such misfortune, the jersey will be a two horse race between Nairo Quintana and Michael Kwiatkowski.

Both have been touted as future winners of the Tour and for good reason. Both can time trial and both can climb although the Colombian excels more in the lumpier stuff while the Pole takes the plaudits against the clock.

With the Alps fast approaching it will be fascinating to see how they react. Both are in their first tour and the final week of any three week tour brings with it a whole new range of issues, as the riders cope with fatigue and a savage profile.

They have shown enough already to cement their reputation and potential. Don't be surprised if this jersey is just the start of many for them both.

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 10 Preview

AFTER the trials and tribulations of the mountains, it's time to turn our attentions back to the sprinters.

Stage 10 sees the peloton at the opposite end of the country to the Pyrenees with a 197km route through Brittany from Saint-Gildas-des-Bois to Saint-Malo.

The profile shows just one Cat 4 climb coming 55km from the finish although there are a couple of uncategorized lumps early in the stage which may prove a springboard for a breakaway.

The last part of the course hugs the coastline and can be described as rolling but shouldn't be testing unless there is a wind coming off the Channel. The final 5 km are pretty straight with just a slight dogleg right with 350m to go to test the sprinters.

A break will be allowed to go early on and while the responsibilities will be on Team Sky to keep it in check, it should be a fairly easy day for them. Once over the Cote de Dinan expect some of the sprinters teams to come and give them a hand in reeling the escapees back.

Favourites for the stage are the usual suspects. Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff will all be in the mix again. Greipel looks the strongest at the minute but you can never count out Cav. Or Sagan for that matter.

If you want outsiders for the sprint then look to the former race leader Daryl Impey to be involved. He is in great form and I think Orica Green Edge will hand him the opportunity to go for the win ahead of Matt Goss. Euskatel's Juan Jose Lobato del Valle has also been impressive through this race and should gain another top 10 finish here.

If the wind does get up, and the forecast has it coming from the north east which will be behind the field for the last 10km or so, then we could see someone try and jump away from the group along the coast. Juan Antonio Flecha has been very active this year as has his team Vaconsoleil as they attempt to attract new sponsors. A lone attack suits Flecha's style down to the ground and he certainly has the power to back it up. If the peloton hesitate and allow someone like him to go they may miss out altogether.

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The Points Classification (Green Jersey)

There is more than one race within the Tour de France. Not everyone can win the yellow jersey so in 1953 the organisers introduced the Malliot Vert for the best daily finisher. The colour green was chosen because the sponsor at the time was a lawn mower producer.

Usually this is a competition for the sprinters. Points are available to the first 15 finishers on each stage and there are more on offer on the flat than in the mountains or time trials.

There is also one intermediate sprint each day which also gains points towards the classification.

So for a stage like today 45 points are awarded to the first man across the line with the rest getting 35, 30, 26, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4 and 2 respectively.
 
For medium mountain stages the winner gets 30 points with 20 points going to the winner of a high mountain stage or time trial.

Intermediate sprints also awarded 20 points to the first across the line.

Last years winner Peter Sagan looks on course to retain his title. He currently holds a fairly substantial lead in this competition, a full 93 points clear of Andre Greipel in second and 106 points ahead of Mark Cavendish in third.

Sagan owes this lead predominantly to his ability to get over mountains and hills better than his rivals and in particular to stage seven. Here he was able to hoover up a full 65 points while his main competitors struggled to get over the climbs and picked up nothing.

It is worth noting that you don't have to win the most stages to get this jersey. Cav won six stages in the 2009 tour and five in 2010 yet finished second in this classification.

And I would expect Greipel and Cavendish to both rack up more wins than Sagan this time around. But nothing, other than a crash and abandonment,  will stop the Slovakian from taking the title again.

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 7 Preview

MARK Cavendish was expected to roar into Montpellier to take his second successive stage win. However Andre Greipel timed his run perfectly to take the win. Stage seven will provide him with another chance to prove he is better than the Manxman.

It's a bit more of a rolling profile than previously and in fact shares some similarities with stage two. It takes the riders 205km from Montpellier to Albi and crosses four categorised climbs. One cat 2, two cat 3's and a cat 4.

However whereas on stage 2 the sprinters who were dropped early on the 2nd category Col de Vizzavona only had 60km to recover, here they will have plenty of time to rejoin the peleton.  The 2nd cat climb here is the 6.7km long Col de la Croix de Mounis but it's summit is 111km from the finish. The final climb of the day, the cat 4 Cote de Teillet comes 36km from the end.

The run in itself is straight and flat for the last km and with only a few kinks in the final 5km should be tailor-made for a sprint finish.

Can Cav make amends or will Greipel repeat? Cav is clearly over his recent illness but got he and OPQS got their timings all wrong. A hard chase to get back into contention after a slight tumble also did him no favours.

Greipel however took advantage on a perfect leadout by his Lotto-Belisol team

Cannondale will be out to try and make it hard for them both tomorrow in the hills. If they can put enough of distance into the sprinters it will mean a very hard chase just to get back to the bunch, which could nullify the sprint trains somewhat.

Peter Sagan still hasn't won a stage yet despite some close run things. He will be desperate to win and really cement his lead in the green jersey.

Again those people who have dominated the top 10 in recent days will be there or thereabouts. This means Marcel Kittel, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Alexander Kristoff, et al. I can't see anyone outside of these top quick men getting anywhere near if it ends as expected in a sprint.

With the exception of Juan Jose Lobato del Valle. The Euskatel rider has finished 7th and 5th in the last two days and could well make the top 10 again.

But I still think Cav will do it. He will be fuming after missing out today so expect a reaction and win number 25.

However for that to happen it has to actually finish in a bunch sprint. This could be well be a day that the breakaway makes it although a lot will depend on what happens during the stage. Those who are looking for an early lead in the King of the Mountains jersey will mix with the have-a-go heroes and if they can get a strong group together they will have a good chance of making it all the way to the line.

Riders who will go for the breakaway are interchangeable but expect teams such as Europcar (Pierre Rolland?), Vaconsoleil (Westra, De Gendt, Flecha?), Saur Sojasun, Euskatel, Cofidis and AG2R to all try and infiltrate the escape.

Don't expect to see any of the big favourites though today, other than trying to stay out of trouble at the front of the bunch. Saturday and Sunday sees the race enter the Pyrenees which is guaranteed to be huge in terms of the overall. Fireworks will be expected from the likes of Chris Froome, Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans then.

As they will be from the Manx Missile today!

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Sprint Trains

These are a fairly new phenomenon and owe Mark Cavendish really for their creation.

In days gone by there was no real structure to a bunch sprint. The fast men gathered near the front, the rest got out of their way and the bun fight began!

And in some cases actual fights broke out. Headbuts, punches were all common place. I even remember Belgian sprinter Tom Steels hurling a water bottle at a rival he felt had impeded him, all at speeds of 50+ kph!

However it was while Cav was at Team HighRoad that a plan of attack was brought in. His team realised that if they could navigate through the carnage and keep him towards the front, there was very few people who were going to beat him for speed.

And so this is what they did. They would put three or four riders ahead of Cav with about 5km to go, move to the front and keep the pace so high that nobody could launch off the front or come past them.

The last man in the line would, in theory, take him all the way to about 200-300m to go and then the 'missile' would be launched.

It proved so effective that now everybody does it to the point that there is often three sprint trains leading the peloton in a strange trident formation.

Because it has been proved that riding in somebody's slipstream saves you around 20% in terms of energy then sprinters themselves almost get an armchair ride till the very last moments of the stage. It is why after every win Mark will thank his team profusely, saying something along the lines of 'I couldn't have done it without my team' and 'They rode so hard'.

You can still win a bunch sprint without a team helping you. But it involves knowing which wheel to be on and at what time, as well as an amazing amount of bravery and luck!

And while the sprint trains remain effective they will rule the roost in any massed finish.

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 6 Preview

IF there was a slight doubt about stage 5 there is absolutely no uncertainty about stage 6. This will definitely finish in a bunch sprint.

And even the profile supports this. The last real corner comes with around 3km to go and from there on in it's a virtual straight run to the line.

The route takes the riders the 176km from Aix-en-Provence to Montpellier. It crosses just one categorised climb, the cat 4 Col de la Vayede after 68km. There's nothing after this but flat roads all the way to the finish.

A breakaway will go out early on, it will be brought back. Even Spain v Tahiti in the recent Confederations Cup wasn't that nailed on!

Favourite? Really can't look past Mark Cavendish again for this. Despite his brush with bronchitis in the last week he proved yesterday that he is back to 100%. Mind even a 90% fit Mark Cavenidsh is not something that can be easily beaten!

His leadout train (and by this I mean the entire Omega Pharma Quickstep team) proved in the Team Time Trial that they are absolutely flying at the moment. Even the injury to Tony Martin is not preventing him for producing some serious power.

They were immense in stage five and I can see a repeat. The loss in the TTT has clearly hurt them, especially as the winning margin was less than a second.

Outside of this it's the usual suspects. Andre Griepel, Marcel Kittel, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni will all be mixing it in the final stages. Orica Green Edge have had a good tour so far ( if you ignore the bus calamity!) and have taken two stage victories. Matt Goss is their hope for another one here although the big Aussie has not been firing on all cylinders recently.

Further down and aiming for at least a  top 10 place will be Team Sky's Edvald Boasson Hagen, Movistar's Jose Joaquin Rojas and Julien Simon of Saur-Sojasun.

But barring a disaster it will be the Manx Missile standing atop the podium celebrating win number 26, which will put him just 8 behind Eddie Merckx in the list of most Tour de France stage wins.

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Breakaways

Why do people attack and get into breakaways? They never succeed!

It's a fair question. In years gone by breaks could disappear up the road inside the opening kilometres and not be seen again all day. Going back to 1990 a four man break containing Frans Maassen, Ronen Pensec, Steve Bauer and Claudio Chiappucci attacked on stage one and came home a full 10 minutes clear of the field. These four ended up sharing the yellow jersey between them for 19 days, losing it with just two days to go to eventual winner Greg Lemond.

In 2006 Oscar Periero got into a break on stage 13 and incredibly took just under 30 minutes out of the peleton. It was a break that ultimately won him the yellow jersey that year.

But these days teams, and sprinters teams in particular, rarely allow a break to stay away for the full stage. There is less stages these days for their quick men to profit from so they take every opportunity going.

So the question remains. Why do it?

In some cases it is simply a case of getting your name and more importantly the name of your sponsor on TV. Vaconsoleil for example, are pulling out of the sport at the end of the year so the current team need to showcase their talents to try and attract a new sponsor.

Europcar have been active a great deal so far. As a French team it is vital for them to be prominent throughout their home tour. Same applies to AG2R La Mondiale and Saur Sojasun.

However the overriding reason in most cases is quite simple. As the examples above prove, sometimes a break does work. And for teams like those above who don't have a top sprinter or a overall GC contender, these days represent their only chances of getting a stage win.

So expect breaks on every day and eventually one will work!

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 5 Preview

LISTEN to the experts, talk to the race organisers, they will say the same thing. Stage Five should finish in a bunch sprint.

And to be fair they would have a point. Stage Five should indeed finish with the field arriving en masse.

The route heads from Cagnes-sur-Mer to Marseilles, roughly following the Mediterranean coast for the entirety of it's 228km length. Just four categorised climbs are included, one Cat 3 and three Cat 4's and none of these should cause the big sprinters a great deal of problem. The last one, the Cat 4 Cote des Bastides,  has it's summit 30km from the finish.

However with just 12km to go there is a little lump on the profile which may have a significant amount to say in what happens with the stage result.

The Col de la Gineste is uncategorised. 7.3km long it's average gradient from the west side is a mere 3.1% and for 3 km in the middle it is pretty flat. But the ramps at the start and finish of the climb will be enough, if the pace is high enough, to stretch the peleton out.

And it will be almost guaranteed that someone will try their luck with a big attack.

The reason is the descent. Steep and with a couple of tight corners, if someone who is fearless and can descend well gets clear over the top, they may have a good chance on getting to the finish alone.

Slyvain Chavanel (yes, him again)  could be one as could the likes of Lieuwe Westra of Vaconsoleil.

Cannondale will almost certainly be on the front for the ascent as they attempt to shake Mark Cavendish loose and give their man Peter Sagan a chance at the win that has eluded him so far.

Cav can descend well but he has been suffering from bronchitis recently so may not be at full fitness. But he will be smarting from missing out on the yellow jersey on Saturday so will want a modicum of revenge. And this would have been one stage he would have had circled in his racebook very early on.

Sagan himself has been pipped by one or two to the line so far, including the new Malliot Jaune Simon Gerrans on stage three, a man he would have expected to beat. And I think he may come up short again. Remember he is not a pure sprinter but will be in the mix, simply to pick up some more points in the race for the Green Jersey.

Favourite for me is Alexander Kristoff. Beaten into second place by Marcel Kittel on stage one but he picked up some good results just prior to the Tour and the Gineste will not be a problem for him. He has the speed and with Cav suffering may just have the edge.

For an outsider look to Jose Rojas of Movistar. He was 9th on stage one and 3rd on stage three. He has a good chance of another top 10 finish at this one.

Other than the Gineste there is one more obstacle for the peleton to navigate before the line. The road swings through a 90 degree left hand turn just 450m from the line. Position here will be paramount and only those in the first five positions out of this corner will have a realistic chance of success.

Also don't be surprised if there is a tumble at some point. This is the first opportunity for a sprint since day one and I can't see the sprinters teams wanting to miss out. So the pace will be high and nerves will too.

It will make for an exciting finish, buses permitting of course!


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Categorised Climbs:

I talk a lot about the number of 'categorised climbs' along the route but for those new to cycling it probably seems like insane rambling.

A bit like trying to explain to a Premier League referee that you ARE allowed to give a penalty against Manchester United at Old Trafford. It just won't compute!

So I've put together a little guide here:

There are five different levels of categorisation for climbs ranging from Cat 4 through to Cat 1 and finally the HC 'Hors Categorie' or 'Beyond Category' climb.

The way the organisation decides on a climbs category has changed over the years. Folklore states that back in the 50's Tour climbs were categorised by the gear needed to propel a Citroen 2CV up them! HC climbs? Yep, there the ones where you got out and pushed!

Nowadays the length of the climb, average gradient, height in metres as well the position in the stage are all taken into account to give the final category. This is all decided by the race organisers and it has been known for certain climbs to change category.

Basically Cat 4 is not bad, but HC, it's going to be a tough day at the office!

Tour de France 2013 : Stage Two Preview

I WAS going to start this piece with the following sentence: "IF stage one was fairly easy to predict then stage two is anything but."

However stage one was as unpredictable and crazy as they come!

Orica Green Edge stamped their mark on the Tour early but not in the way they would have wanted as they jammed their bus under the finish gantry.

This caused the finish line to be moved to the 3km point as the riders hit the 10km to go mark.

As they wound up for the new sprint the inevitable crash happened, claiming Peter Sagan and Alberto Contador as it's highest profile victims. Mark Cavendish managed to avoid it and stay upright but couldn't help but get caught up behind it.

Then the bus was moved and the finish line reinstated to it's original position.

Andre Greipel never made it as a mechanical issue put pay to his chances but his fellow countryman Marcel Kittel was the big winner, picking his way through the carnage to beat Alexander Kristoff.

The ramifications will go on all night but as far as times go everybody has been awarded the same time as Kittel, which is absolutely the right thing to do. Green Edge will face some sanctions as well as a lot of animosity from the rest of the peloton and watching public.

So after that absolutely bizarre day stage two might not be as unpredictable as we first thought.

It will be though!

The profile suggests that the pure sprinters won't be around come the finish. Two cat 2 climbs and two cat 3 should thin out the field enough to see off the likes of yellow jersey Kittel, Griepel and Nacer Bouhanni.

However that's where the certainty ends.

The last climb is the Cat 3 Cote du Salario, the summit of which comes 12 km from the finish. It is only 1 km in length but has an average gradient of 8.9%.

It is the type of climb which could provide a springboard for anyone with a stage victory in mind. And with time gaps from today being none existent a stage victory should bring with it the next yellow jersey.

It is a finish which seems a little similar to Milan San-Remo which means it could be a day for the puncheurs. Slyvain Chavanel, Thomas Voeckler, Fabian Cancellara, Phillipe Gilbert are just some of the names that could be in the mix come the finish.

Pure sprinters should be jettisoned before the finish but don't rule out Mark Cavendish though. He is a previous winner in San Remo and is in good form. Stage one will have been a bitter disappointment and I can imagine a fired up Manxman.

If he can get to the top of the final climb in contact he will be a big favourite.

For an outsider Johnny Hoogerland may be the one for you, that is if riding into a barrier on stage one hasn't affected him much! But he is no stranger to adversity, who can forget his coming together with barbed wire two years ago, and in February this year he was involved in a car accident while out training which left him with five broken ribs, a bruised liver and bone fractures to his spine.

But to everybody's surprise he returned to action in May (some footballers should take note) and just last weekend he shocked everybody by winning the Dutch national championship.

He will want to show off that jersey and before tiredness creeps in later in the Tour expect him on the attack at some point this week.

My big favourite was Sagan but a lot will depend on his condition in the morning. Stage one wasn't ideal for him, even before his tumble, but stage two could be. He has the ability to handle the climb, can descend well and we all know about his sprinting qualities.

So he is my favourite....if things go as planned.... which they probably won't!

All of the above could be blown out of the water if one of the favourites decides to take the bull by the horns and attack.

Joaquin Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde are two that love this type of parcours. They might also think they can gain some time over the likes of Froome and Contador.

It is more likely they will keep their powder dry though. It's a long way to Paris and it's a big ask to take the jersey so early and hold it all the way.

But don't quote me on that!

Tour de France 2013 : Stage One Preview

THREE things are certain when you look at this year's opening stage of the Tour de France.

One, it will end in a sprint finish. 
Two, the winner will walk away with the first yellow jersey of the race, and 
Three, there will be an almighty crash in the closing stages!

Always happens, absolute guarantee! The first week of any Grand Tour is a frenetic, nervous and dangerous affair, never mind the biggest of them all. Every one of the 198 strong field wants to be in those first few places on the road and obviously the maths just doesn't fit!

So if you factor that in it's incredibly difficult to pick a winner. So imagine that this year, for the first time in a very long time, the peleton arrives at the finish unscathed. Could we see the British National champion swap the iconic blue and red bands for a yellow jersey?

All things considered yes. Mark Cavendish is undoubtedly the fastest man on two wheels and in a clean fight he should win more often than not. By his own admission he normally takes a few days to get into a three week tour but this year he has tailored his training specifically with this stage in mind.

And it looks to have worked. His form in winning the nationals in Glasgow last weekend was impressive, getting into the winning move early and even putting a little attack in up the short but steep climb of Montrose Street.

His leadout train has misfired a few times this year but there is no doubting the strength he has at his disposal for this one. Gert Steegmans will be his final leadout man but with the likes of Sylvain Chavanel, Tony Martin & Peter Velits as well OPQS should be a the front of affairs heading into the last km.

His big rival for the green jersey is last years winner Peter Sagan but this is not the best type of stage for him. He is fearless and a great bike handler so if there is a pile-up there's a good chance he can navigate through it safely. However he doesn't have the basic straight line speed of his rivals so yellow might elude him this time around. His time will come though.

Like Cavendish, Andre Greipel heads into the Tour as the new national champion of Germany and on paper he will be the big rival to take yellow. His results earlier in the year were very good but went through a quiet spell until the recent Ster ZLM Toer and the nationals. Make no bones about it though the 'Gorilla' is one of the favourites for the win.

Outside of these look to the likes of Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb and Nacer Bouhanni. All are in good form and in the case of the first two they are capable of getting to the finish with the lead group over a bit more of the lumpy stuff. So even if they fail to win here they will be in with a shout on other days.

As well as the sprinters expect to see some have-a-go heroes try their luck before the finish. The likes of a Jens Voigt or a Fabian Cancellara may try and upset the sprinters (and stay clear of any problems) in the final few kilometres.

In other words anything could happen! But as I stated earlier if you want a sure thing, then back the crash!